03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
49.6% |
56.5% |
7 pts under
|
| Arsenal Win |
50.9% |
57.1% |
6 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
51% (model)
Corners: Napoli avg 5.3 for/3.5 against, Arsenal avg 4.5 for/4.3 against → expected 8.8 match corners
-
Over 2.5 Match Cards
40% (model)
Cards: Napoli avg 1.1/game, Arsenal avg 1.1/game → expected 2.3 match cards
-
Over 20.5 Match Fouls
27% (model)
Fouls: Napoli avg 7.5/game, Arsenal avg 10.5/game → expected 18.0 match fouls
-
Over 26.5 Match Shots
51% (model)
Shots: Napoli avg 13.0/game, Arsenal avg 13.8/game → expected 26.8 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Can Arsenal Get the Job Done at Napoli?
Napoli 23%, the draw 26%, Arsenal 51%. That's the shape of this one.
Arsenal slight edge (51%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Tricky away day for Arsenal (1st, 24 pts) as they travel to Napoli (30th, 8 pts), but the visitors' league position tells you they should have more than enough here.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Arsenal at 51%, but the draw sits at 26%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
✈
Strong Travellers
Arsenal win 62% of their away games (W5 from 8). Dangerous visitors
📊
H2H Favours Away
Arsenal have won 3 of the last 4 encounters. They have a psychological edge
⚖
Quality Gap
Arsenal's GD of +22 dwarfs Napoli's -6. The visitors are a level above
▸ Form & goals
Arsenal are no pushovers away from home. W5 D2 L1 from 8 away trips, scoring 1.8 per game on the road. Napoli (W2 D1 L1 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. Arsenal have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Season-long, Arsenal average 1.6 points per game compared to Napoli's 1.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Interestingly, Napoli look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.8 a game, but they're only converting 1.1 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Napoli come out at +1.4 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.8. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Napoli create chances worth 1.8 a game (and give up chances worth 0.4), leaving them +1.4 a game on the balance. Arsenal create 1.7 (giving up 0.9) for a balance of +0.8. The underlying numbers clearly favour Napoli. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Napoli should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.8 a game but they're only getting 1.1 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Napoli are scoring 1.1 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Arsenal manage 2.0 (1.9 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%.
Both teams score in 58% of Napoli's home games and 53% of Arsenal's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Napoli need points desperately. Sitting 30th in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
Arsenal are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
In the last 4 meetings: Napoli have won 1, Arsenal 3, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 1.8 goals per game. Recent results: Napoli 0-1 Arsenal, Arsenal 2-0 Napoli, Napoli 2-0 Arsenal, Arsenal 2-0 Napoli.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (13%) and 0-2 (12%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Napoli · xG
For: 1.76/g
Against: 0.37/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.76/g, value possible
📊 Arsenal · xG
For: 1.69/g
Against: 0.92/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Napoli vs Arsenal Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Napoli Win |
@4.00
|
23.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
25.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Arsenal Win |
@1.85
|
50.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.85
|
49.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.85
|
50.4% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Napoli vs Arsenal Team Stats
Napoli
Position
30
Played
8
Record
2W-2D-4L
Goals F/A
9/15
Avg Goals Scored
1.10
Points
8
Overall Form
LWWWL
Home Record
2W-1D-1L
Arsenal
Position
1
Played
15
Record
11W-3D-1L
Goals F/A
30/8
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Points
24
Overall Form
WWDWW
Away Record
5W-2D-1L
Napoli vs Arsenal Head to Head
1 Home Wins
0 Draws
3 Away Wins
1.8
Avg Goals
0/4
BTTS
0/4
Over 2.5
2019-04-18
Napoli 0-1 Arsenal
2019-04-11
Napoli 0-2 Arsenal
2013-12-11
Napoli 2-0 Arsenal
2013-10-01
Napoli 0-2 Arsenal
Full Napoli vs Arsenal head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-1
12.5%
0-2
12.2%
1-2
9.7%
0-3
7.9%
1-3
6.3%
0-4
3.9%
1-4
3.1%
2-3
2.5%