03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Barcelona Win |
73.2% |
92.6% |
19 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
79.9% |
82.0% |
2 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🔥
Barcelona are on a 3-game winning streak
01The read
Barcelona and Feyenoord Promise Fireworks. Preview & Prediction
The model makes Barcelona 73% favourites here. Feyenoord carry the 13% upset.
Barcelona to win (73%) | Three or more goals likely (80%) | Both teams to score (71%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Barcelona have won three straight; Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last five. Form gives little away going into this Champions League tie.
Our verdict
This one's fairly decisive: Barcelona at 73%. When form, stats and the model all line up this strongly, the favourite is the clear call.
Our pick
Our PickBarcelona to win at @1.12. Model probability 73% vs implied 89%. The market is 16pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Barcelona have won 4 of 6 at home (66%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
🔥
Goals Expected
Barcelona score 3.3 per game at home and Feyenoord concede 5.0 away. Goals look inevitable
🔥
Hot Streak
Barcelona have won 3 in a row. Momentum is real
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 75% of Feyenoord's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Barcelona's home record this season is formidable. W4 D0 L2 from 6, scoring 3.3 goals per game at home. Feyenoord, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W0 D0 L1 from 1 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore. Barcelona's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Season-long, Barcelona average 1.3 points per game compared to Feyenoord's 0.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Barcelona average 2.7 per game and Feyenoord chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest.
Goals look likely here. Barcelona average 2.7 per game (3.3 at home) and Feyenoord chip in with 2.0 (2.0 away). Defensively, Barcelona concede 1.5 at home and Feyenoord leak 5.0 on the road. We make it 80% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 71%. Barcelona score in 83% of their games and Feyenoord in 100%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 47% of Barcelona's home games and 75% of Feyenoord's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Barcelona are all-out attack: 2.7 goals a game, but they leak 1.7 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Feyenoord, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Feyenoord have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (3.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (7%) and 3-1 (7%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Barcelona · xG
For: 1.53/g
Against: 1.06/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Barcelona vs Feyenoord Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Barcelona Win |
@1.12
|
73.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@9.00
|
13.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Feyenoord Win |
@17.00
|
13.3% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.22
|
79.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@4.00
|
20.1% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Barcelona vs Feyenoord Team Stats
Barcelona
Position
5
Played
12
Record
7W-2D-3L
Goals F/A
32/20
Avg Goals Scored
2.70
Points
16
Overall Form
WWWLW
Home Record
4W-0D-2L
Feyenoord
Played
2
Record
1W-0D-1L
Goals F/A
4/6
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Overall Form
DWDWW
Away Record
0W-0D-1L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
6.8%
3-1
6.5%
3-2
6.0%
4-1
4.6%
4-2
4.3%
3-0
3.5%
4-3
2.6%
5-1
2.6%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 1 priced markets
-
Over 2.5 goals
82%
@1.22
William Hill
Build a slip from these markets →