03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Sporting Lisbon Win |
47.7% |
55.6% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
58.9% |
61.7% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Sporting Lisbon vs Galatasaray: Can the Hosts Deliver?
Sporting Lisbon 48%, the draw 25%, Galatasaray 28%. That's the shape of this one.
Sporting Lisbon slight edge (48%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Sporting Lisbon at @1.95 for this Champions League tie, with Galatasaray out at @3.70.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Sporting Lisbon edge it at 48% but a draw (25%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
🚫
Poor Away Form
Galatasaray have won just 1 of 6 on the road. Travelling support won't expect much
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Galatasaray's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 59% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Galatasaray have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average.
Sporting Lisbon average 0.0 goals per game and Galatasaray manage 1.4. Combined that's just 1.4. Even so, we make it 59% for three or more. The model sees more goals here than the season averages suggest.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Galatasaray travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 20th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
Sporting Lisbon do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (5%) and 3-0 (2%).
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Sporting Lisbon vs Galatasaray Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Sporting Lisbon Win |
@1.95
|
47.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
24.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Galatasaray Win |
@3.70
|
27.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.70
|
58.9% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.10
|
41.1% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Sporting Lisbon vs Galatasaray Team Stats
Sporting Lisbon
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Galatasaray
Position
20
Played
12
Record
5W-1D-6L
Goals F/A
17/20
Avg Goals Scored
1.40
Points
10
Overall Form
WWDLDL
Away Record
1W-0D-5L
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
5.4%
3-0
2.2%
3-1
1.5%