03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| VfB Stuttgart Win |
70.1% |
84.0% |
14 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
71.7% |
77.5% |
6 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Player Form
Projected from club-season form, informational, not part of our verified record. Build your own bet.
P
P. Christiansen
1+ Shots on Target
67% (model)
P. Christiansen averages 1.24 SoT/match (17 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Z
Z. Tripić
Anytime Assist
60% (model)
Z. Tripić on 0.88 assists/match (17 apps, 70 key passes), match xG 2.72
Z
Z. Tripić
1+ Shots on Target
47% (model)
Z. Tripić averages 0.71 SoT/match (17 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
G
G. Stensness
1+ Shots on Target
43% (model)
G. Stensness averages 0.63 SoT/match (16 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
S
S. Kvia-Egeskog
1+ Shots on Target
39% (model)
S. Kvia-Egeskog averages 0.56 SoT/match (18 apps), away vs opp conceding 4.5 SoT/game
Projections from club-season form only, informational, never recorded or graded, and outside our verified record by design. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Goals, Goals, Goals: VfB Stuttgart vs Viking FK Preview
The model makes VfB Stuttgart 70% favourites here. Viking FK carry the 14% upset.
VfB Stuttgart to win (70%) | Three or more goals likely (72%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
VfB Stuttgart have taken six points from their last five; Viking FK have won three of their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Champions League tie.
Z. Tripić has been Viking FK's main threat, with 6 goals and 15 assists in 17 appearances, averaging 0.71 shots on target per game.
Our verdict
This one's fairly decisive: VfB Stuttgart at 70%. When form, stats and the model all line up this strongly, the favourite is the clear call.
Our pick
Our PickVfB Stuttgart to win at @1.25. Model probability 70% vs implied 80%. The market is 10pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key men
Z
Z. Tripić
Viking FK · Midfielder
6 goals · 15 assists in 17 apps
0.7 shots on target a game
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 62% of VfB Stuttgart's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. VfB Stuttgart average 2.0 per game and Viking FK chip in with 2.2. Expect an open, attacking contest. One thing to keep in mind about VfB Stuttgart. They're scoring 2.0 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.9. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. Viking FK could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.2 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.8. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: Viking FK come out at +0.7 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.2. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
VfB Stuttgart create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.8), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Viking FK create 1.8 (giving up 1.1) for a balance of +0.7. On the quality of chances, Viking FK look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. VfB Stuttgart are scoring 2.0 goals a game off chances worth just 1.9. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Viking FK are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.2 goals vs chance quality of 1.8). Both runs could cool off at once.
Goals look likely here. VfB Stuttgart average 2.0 per game (2.0 at home) and Viking FK chip in with 2.2 (2.2 away). Defensively, VfB Stuttgart concede 2.4 at home and Viking FK leak 1.0 on the road. We make it 72% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. VfB Stuttgart create chances worth 1.9 a game and Viking FK 1.8. Combined, that's 3.7 a game from open play alone.
Both teams score in 41% of VfB Stuttgart's home games and 67% of Viking FK's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
VfB Stuttgart are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Viking FK, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Viking FK have goals in them (2.2 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Don't underestimate the visitors. Viking FK create chances worth 1.8 a game and VfB Stuttgart give up chances worth 1.8 at home. The away side could control the ball here.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (6%) and 3-2 (3%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 VfB Stuttgart · xG
For: 1.91/g
Against: 1.76/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.39/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
VfB Stuttgart vs Viking FK Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
VfB Stuttgart Win |
@1.25
|
70.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@6.00
|
16.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Viking FK Win |
@10.00
|
13.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.29
|
71.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@3.60
|
28.3% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
5.8%
3-2
3.3%
3-1
2.9%
3-0
1.3%
4-2
1.3%
4-1
1.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 2 priced markets
-
VfB Stuttgart to win
84%
@1.25
Ladbrokes
-
Over 2.5 goals
78%
@1.29
William Hill
Build a slip from these markets →