03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Paris Saint Germain Win |
75.3% |
98.0% |
23 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
77.2% |
82.0% |
5 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Paris Saint Germain Host ŠK Slovan Bratislava: Our Prediction
Paris Saint Germain 75%, the draw 14%, ŠK Slovan Bratislava 11%. That's the shape of this one.
Paris Saint Germain to win (75%) | Three or more goals likely (77%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Paris Saint Germain at @1.05 for this Champions League tie, with ŠK Slovan Bratislava out at @36.00.
Our verdict
This one's fairly decisive: Paris Saint Germain at 75%. When form, stats and the model all line up this strongly, the favourite is the clear call.
Our pick
Our PickParis Saint Germain to win at @1.05. Model probability 75% vs implied 95%. The market is 20pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Paris Saint Germain have won 6 of 9 at home (66%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 62% of Paris Saint Germain's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Paris Saint Germain are scoring 2.7 a game (3.0 of those at home) and ŠK Slovan Bratislava manage 0.0 (0.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 77%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
▸ Team news & context
European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Paris Saint Germain are all-out attack: 2.7 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at ŠK Slovan Bratislava, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. ŠK Slovan Bratislava prefer to keep things tight (0.0 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Paris Saint Germain against this setup.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (8%) and 3-0 (5%).
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Paris Saint Germain · xG
For: 2.15/g
Against: 1.01/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Paris Saint Germain vs ŠK Slovan Bratislava Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Paris Saint Germain Win |
@1.05
|
75.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@19.00
|
14.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
ŠK Slovan Bratislava Win |
@36.00
|
10.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.22
|
77.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@4.00
|
22.8% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Paris Saint Germain vs ŠK Slovan Bratislava Team Stats
Paris Saint Germain
Position
11
Played
17
Record
11W-4D-2L
Goals F/A
46/23
Avg Goals Scored
2.70
Points
14
Overall Form
DDDLW
Home Record
6W-2D-1L
ŠK Slovan Bratislava
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.2%
3-0
5.3%
3-1
3.7%
4-0
1.8%
3-2
1.3%
4-1
1.2%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 1 priced markets
-
Over 2.5 goals
82%
@1.22
William Hill
Build a slip from these markets →