03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Liverpool Win |
52.9% |
61.3% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
59.6% |
62.5% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 68% of Liverpool home games
01The read
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid: Can the Hosts Deliver?
The model makes Liverpool 53% favourites here. Atlético Madrid carry the 24% upset.
Liverpool slight edge (53%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Liverpool are winless in their last five; Atlético Madrid have won three of their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Champions League tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Liverpool at 53%, but the draw sits at 23%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
🏟
Home Fortress
Liverpool have won 4 of 6 at home (66%). They rarely slip up on their own patch
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 68% of Liverpool's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 60% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals look likely here. Liverpool average 2.0 per game (2.5 at home) and Atlético Madrid chip in with 1.6 (1.6 away). Defensively, Liverpool concede 1.3 at home and Atlético Madrid leak 1.3 on the road. We make it 60% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 68% of Liverpool's home games and 55% of Atlético Madrid's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
The stakes are high for Liverpool at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Atlético Madrid face a tough afternoon. European nights carry a magic all of their own. The anthem, the spotlight, the occasion. Both sets of players will be desperate to deliver under the continental floodlights.
Liverpool are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.1 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Atlético Madrid, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (5%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Liverpool · xG
For: 1.48/g
Against: 1.42/g
📊 Atlético Madrid · xG
For: 1.72/g
Against: 1.68/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Liverpool Win |
@1.75
|
52.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.80
|
23.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Atlético Madrid Win |
@4.33
|
24.1% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
59.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.15
|
40.4% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid Team Stats
Liverpool
Position
3
Played
12
Record
7W-0D-5L
Goals F/A
24/13
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Points
18
Overall Form
DDDLD
Home Record
4W-0D-2L
Atlético Madrid
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.2%
3-1
5.0%
3-0
3.8%
3-2
3.3%
4-1
2.0%
4-0
1.5%
4-2
1.4%