03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
48.1% |
57.8% |
10 pts under
|
| Brighton Win |
50.7% |
58.1% |
7 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
52.7% |
58.8% |
6 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Brighton Host Leeds: Our Prediction
Brighton 51%, the draw 24%, Leeds 23%. That's the shape of this one.
Brighton slight edge (51%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Brighton (2nd, 3 pts) host Leeds (9th, 3 pts) in the Premier League. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Brighton at 51%, but the draw sits at 24%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
▸ Form & goals
Leeds are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L0 from 1 away trips, scoring 1.0 per game on the road. Brighton (W1 D0 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. The gap in chance quality is clear: Brighton come out at +0.6 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. A concern for Leeds: they're giving up chances worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.4 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Brighton create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 1.0), leaving them +0.6 a game on the balance. Leeds create 1.4 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Brighton. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Leeds's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.8 a game over their last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Brighton are scoring 4.0 a game (4.0 of those at home) and Leeds manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 48%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. Two or more goals at @1.28 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 58% of Brighton's home games and 63% of Leeds's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
The stakes are high for Brighton at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Leeds face a tough afternoon.
Brighton are all-out attack: 4.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.2 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Leeds, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 10 meetings: Brighton have won 5, Leeds 2, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 1.8 goals per game. 2 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Leeds 1-0 Brighton, Brighton 3-0 Leeds, Leeds 2-2 Brighton, Brighton 1-0 Leeds.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Brighton but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.20 , which pays out if Brighton win or draw, covers 75% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (9%).
First Half Result
-
Brighton HT
2.45
-
Draw HT
2.20
-
Leeds HT
4.00
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Brighton · xG
For: 1.75/g
Against: 1.11/g
📊 Leeds · xG
For: 1.40/g
Against: 1.30/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Brighton vs Leeds Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Brighton Win |
@1.83
|
50.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
24.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Leeds Win |
@4.33
|
23.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
52.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.00
|
47.3% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
48.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.05
|
51.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.84
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.39
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Brighton vs Leeds Team Stats
Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Position
2
Played
1
Record
1W-0D-0L
Goals F/A
4/0
Avg Goals Scored
4.00
Points
3
Overall Form
WLLWL
Home Form
WLWW
Home Record
1W-0D-0L
Leeds United FC
Position
9
Played
1
Record
1W-0D-0L
Goals F/A
1/0
Avg Goals Scored
1.00
Points
3
Overall Form
WWLWD
Away Form
WWLDL
Away Record
1W-0D-0L
Brighton vs Leeds Head to Head
5 Home Wins
3 Draws
2 Away Wins
1.8
Avg Goals
2/10
BTTS
2/10
Over 2.5
2026-05-17
Brighton 0-1 Leeds
2025-11-01
Brighton 3-0 Leeds
2023-03-11
Brighton 2-2 Leeds
2022-08-27
Brighton 1-0 Leeds
2022-05-15
Brighton 1-1 Leeds
2021-11-27
Brighton 0-0 Leeds
2021-05-01
Brighton 2-0 Leeds
2021-01-16
Brighton 1-0 Leeds
2017-03-18
Brighton 0-2 Leeds
2016-12-09
Brighton 2-0 Leeds
Full Brighton vs Leeds head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
7.8%
3-0
7.2%
1-0
6.9%
4-1
4.9%
4-0
4.5%
3-2
4.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
83%
@1.23
Betano
-
Over 1.5 goals
82%
@1.29
Betano
-
Brighton or Leeds (double chance)
82%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Brighton under 2.5 goals
82%
@1.29
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
81%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Over 7.5 corners
80%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Brighton under 8.5 corners
80%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Brighton over 1 goals
79%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
Leeds under 1.5 goals
78%
@1.35
1xBet
-
Under 3.5 goals
75%
@1.39
Betano
-
Under 2 second half goals
75%
@1.33
Marathon Bet
-
Brighton over 4.5 corners
75%
@1.33
Unibet
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