Hull City vs Aston Villa Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
Get the model's verified verdict on Hull City (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
Hull City have won three of their last five; Aston Villa have won three straight. Form gives little away going into this Premier League tie.
Aston Villa could be in for a similar cool-off. 2.0 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.4. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Hull City create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Aston Villa create 1.4 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.2. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Aston Villa are also scoring more than their chances suggest (2.0 goals vs chance quality of 1.4). Both runs could cool off at once.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Hull City are scoring 1.2 a game (1.2 of those at home) and Aston Villa manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of Hull City's home games and 63% of Aston Villa's away matches.
Hull City do it the hard way: only 1.2 a game up top, but a mean 0.6 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Aston Villa have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.1 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (11%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Hull City Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Aston Villa Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Hull City vs Aston Villa kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:30 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.