Newcastle vs Bournemouth Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
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Newcastle have taken 7 points from their last five; Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last five. Form gives little away going into this Premier League tie.
Bournemouth are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.8 against 1.6 actual goals). They look due a few more. The gap in chance quality is clear: Bournemouth come out at +0.5 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Newcastle create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.1 a game on the balance. Bournemouth create 1.8 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.5. On the quality of chances, Bournemouth look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Bournemouth are creating chances worth 1.8 a game but only finishing 1.6. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Newcastle are scoring 1.4 a game (1.4 of those at home) and Bournemouth manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 79% of Newcastle's home games and 68% of Bournemouth's away matches.
Bournemouth prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Newcastle against this setup. Don't underestimate the visitors. Bournemouth create chances worth 1.8 a game and Newcastle give up chances worth 1.7 at home. The away side could control the ball here.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (12%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Newcastle Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Bournemouth Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Newcastle vs Bournemouth kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 12:30 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.