03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
50.6% |
62.5% |
12 pts under
|
| Bournemouth Win |
50.8% |
54.1% |
3 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
56.8% |
56.8% |
0 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 63% of Bournemouth home games
01The read
Bragging Rights at Stake: Bournemouth vs Everton
Everton arrive on a 2-game losing run to face a side the model has at 51%.
Bournemouth slight edge (51%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last four; Everton are winless in their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Premier League tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Bournemouth at 51%, but the draw sits at 26%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
📊
H2H Dominance
Bournemouth have won 7 of the last 10 meetings. History firmly favours the hosts
📉
Cold Run
Everton have lost their last 2. Confidence in that dressing room will be low
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 66% of Bournemouth's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 57% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Interestingly, Bournemouth look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.6 a game, but they're only converting 1.5 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Bournemouth come out at +0.2 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Bournemouth create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.2 a game on the balance. Everton create 1.3 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.3. The underlying numbers clearly favour Bournemouth. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Bournemouth should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.6 a game but they're only getting 1.5 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Bournemouth are scoring 1.5 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Everton manage 1.4 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 57%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%.
Both teams score in 63% of Bournemouth's home games and 47% of Everton's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Bournemouth do it the hard way: only 1.5 a game up top, but a mean 0.5 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
In the last 10 meetings: Bournemouth have won 7, Everton 3, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 2.5 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Everton 1-2 Bournemouth, Bournemouth 0-1 Everton, Everton 0-3 Bournemouth, Everton 0-2 Bournemouth.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
If you like Bournemouth but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.25 , which pays out if Bournemouth win or draw, covers 76% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (10%) and 3-0 (6%).
First Half Result
-
Bournemouth HT
2.25
-
Draw HT
2.30
-
Everton HT
4.20
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Bournemouth · xG
For: 1.64/g
Against: 1.41/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.51/g, value possible
📊 Everton · xG
For: 1.31/g
Against: 1.59/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Bournemouth vs Everton Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Bournemouth Win |
@1.85
|
50.8% |
Bet365 |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.60
|
25.6% |
Bet365 |
| Match Result |
Everton Win |
@3.90
|
23.7% |
Bet365 |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.67
|
50.6% |
Bet365 |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.20
|
49.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.76
|
56.8% |
1xBet |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.24
|
43.2% |
1xBet |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.22
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.44
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Bournemouth vs Everton Head to Head
7 Home Wins
0 Draws
3 Away Wins
2.5
Avg Goals
3/10
BTTS
6/10
Over 2.5
2026-02-10
Bournemouth 2-1 Everton
2025-12-02
Bournemouth 0-1 Everton
2025-07-26
Bournemouth 3-0 Everton
2025-02-08
Bournemouth 2-0 Everton
2025-01-04
Bournemouth 1-0 Everton
2024-08-31
Bournemouth 3-2 Everton
2024-03-30
Bournemouth 2-1 Everton
2023-10-07
Bournemouth 0-3 Everton
2023-05-28
Bournemouth 0-1 Everton
2022-11-12
Bournemouth 3-0 Everton
Full Bournemouth vs Everton head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.9%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
6.1%
4-0
3.0%
3-2
2.9%
4-1
2.8%
4-2
1.3%
5-0
1.1%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 9 priced markets
-
Over 1.5 goals
82%
@1.22
Bet365
-
Bournemouth or Draw (double chance)
80%
@1.25
1xBet
-
Bournemouth under 2.5 goals
80%
@1.25
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
78%
@1.29
1xBet
-
Bournemouth or Everton (double chance)
78%
@1.29
1xBet
-
Everton under 1.5 goals
75%
@1.33
1xBet
-
Everton over 0.5 goals
74%
@1.36
1xBet
-
Under 3.5 goals
71%
@1.44
Bet365
-
Under 3.5 goals
69%
@1.44
Bet365
Build a slip from these markets →