03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Draw |
27.1% |
32.3% |
5 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
50.0% |
53.2% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 11.5 Match Corners
66% (model)
Corners: Wimbledon avg 5.7 for/5.9 against, Doncaster Rovers avg 7.3 for/7.3 against → expected 13.1 match corners
-
Over 2.5 Match Cards
45% (model)
Cards: Wimbledon avg 1.1/game, Doncaster Rovers avg 1.3/game → expected 2.5 match cards
-
Over 22.5 Match Fouls
42% (model)
Fouls: Wimbledon avg 11.0/game, Doncaster Rovers avg 10.7/game → expected 21.7 match fouls
-
Over 24.5 Match Shots
45% (model)
Shots: Wimbledon avg 11.0/game, Doncaster Rovers avg 13.0/game → expected 24.0 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Analysing Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers: Who Wins?
The model makes Wimbledon 45% favourites here. Doncaster Rovers carry the 40% upset.
Wimbledon slight edge (45%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Wimbledon have lost three of their last five; Doncaster Rovers are winless in their last five. Neither side arrives in rhythm for this League One tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Wimbledon at 45%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
Our model spots value here: Wimbledon to win at @2.60 (our model: 45%, bookmakers imply: 38%). A 7% edge over the market.
Key facts
😶
Blunt Attack
Wimbledon fail to score in 41% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
▸ Form & goals
Wimbledon average 0.4 goals per game and Doncaster Rovers manage 1.4. Combined that's just 1.8. We make it 50% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line.
Both teams score in 43% of Wimbledon's home games and 43% of Doncaster Rovers's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Wimbledon vs Doncaster Rovers Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Wimbledon Win |
@2.60
|
45.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.10
|
27.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Doncaster Rovers Win |
@2.62
|
40.1% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
50.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.83
|
50.0% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
6.3%
2-1
5.7%
2-0
3.3%
3-1
2.0%
3-2
1.7%
3-0
1.1%