03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
42.4% |
49.5% |
7 pts under
|
| Notts County Win |
28.8% |
35.7% |
7 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Analysing Notts County vs Bradford City: Who Wins?
The model makes Bradford City 43% favourites here. Notts County carry the 29% upset.
Bradford City slight edge (43%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Notts County are unbeaten in their last five; Bradford City have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this League One tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Bradford City at just 43%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Bradford City, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
▸ Form & goals
Notts County average 1.3 goals per game and Bradford City manage 0.9. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 42% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 61% of Notts County's home games and 65% of Bradford City's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
Notts County do it the hard way: only 1.3 a game up top, but a mean 0.8 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Bradford City prefer to keep things tight (0.7 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for Notts County against this setup.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Notts County vs Bradford City Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Notts County Win |
@2.88
|
28.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.20
|
27.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Bradford City Win |
@2.38
|
43.3% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.10
|
42.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.67
|
57.6% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
0-0
15.7%
1-0
15.7%
0-1
13.4%
1-1
13.4%
2-0
7.9%
0-2
5.7%