03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Milton Keynes Dons Win |
51.7% |
60.6% |
9 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
63.0% |
66.7% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Match Stats
Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.
-
Over 8.5 Match Corners
48% (model)
Corners: Milton Keynes Dons avg 5.8 for/5.0 against, Peterborough United avg 4.0 for/2.3 against → expected 8.5 match corners
-
Over 4.5 Match Cards
42% (model)
Cards: Milton Keynes Dons avg 2.3/game, Peterborough United avg 2.0/game → expected 4.3 match cards
-
Over 22.5 Match Fouls
47% (model)
Fouls: Milton Keynes Dons avg 13.0/game, Peterborough United avg 9.3/game → expected 22.3 match fouls
-
Over 26.5 Match Shots
79% (model)
Shots: Milton Keynes Dons avg 16.8/game, Peterborough United avg 14.3/game → expected 31.1 match shots
Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.
01The read
Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough United: Can the Hosts Deliver?
Milton Keynes Dons 52%, the draw 23%, Peterborough United 26%. That's the shape of this one.
Milton Keynes Dons slight edge (52%) | Three or more goals likely (63%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Milton Keynes Dons are winless in their last five; Peterborough United have taken 7 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this League One tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Milton Keynes Dons edge it at 52% but a draw (23%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Our pick
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.50. Model probability 63% vs implied 67%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 61% of Milton Keynes Dons's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 63% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Milton Keynes Dons are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Peterborough United manage 1.3 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 63%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams score in 52% of Milton Keynes Dons's home games and 61% of Peterborough United's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough United Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Milton Keynes Dons Win |
@1.85
|
51.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.75
|
22.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Peterborough United Win |
@3.60
|
25.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.50
|
63.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.40
|
37.0% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
7.9%
3-1
3.9%
3-2
3.1%
3-0
2.4%
4-1
1.4%
4-2
1.1%