03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Sheffield Wednesday Win |
48.3% |
57.1% |
9 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
58.8% |
61.7% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🔥
Sheffield Wednesday are on a 3-game winning streak
01The read
Sheffield Wednesday vs Wigan Athletic: Match Preview & Prediction
The model makes Sheffield Wednesday 48% favourites here. Wigan Athletic carry the 27% upset.
Sheffield Wednesday slight edge (48%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Sheffield Wednesday have won three straight; Wigan Athletic have lost four of their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this League One tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Sheffield Wednesday at 48%, but the draw sits at 25%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
😶
Blunt Attack
Sheffield Wednesday fail to score in 50% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem
🔥
Hot Streak
Sheffield Wednesday have won 3 in a row. Momentum is real
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 59% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Sheffield Wednesday are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Wigan Athletic manage 0.9 (0.9 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 59%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams score in 48% of Sheffield Wednesday's home games and 65% of Wigan Athletic's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Sheffield Wednesday are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.1 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Wigan Athletic, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Sheffield Wednesday · xG
For: 0.94/g
Against: 2.18/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Wigan Athletic Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Sheffield Wednesday Win |
@1.85
|
48.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
24.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Wigan Athletic Win |
@3.90
|
27.1% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
58.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.10
|
41.2% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.9%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
6.4%
3-2
3.2%
4-0
3.1%
4-1
3.1%
4-2
1.5%
5-0
1.2%