03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Plymouth Argyle Win |
51.9% |
60.6% |
9 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
63.0% |
66.7% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 61% of Plymouth Argyle home games
01The read
Plymouth Argyle Host Barnsley: Our Prediction
Plymouth Argyle 52%, the draw 23%, Barnsley 25%. That's the shape of this one.
Plymouth Argyle slight edge (52%) | Three or more goals likely (63%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Plymouth Argyle have taken 7 points from their last five; Barnsley have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this League One tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Plymouth Argyle at just 52%. With the draw at 23%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Plymouth Argyle, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Our pick
Our PickThree or more goals at @1.50. Model probability 63% vs implied 67%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 67% of Barnsley's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 63% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Plymouth Argyle are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Barnsley manage 1.4 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 63%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 61% of Plymouth Argyle's home games and 65% of Barnsley's away matches.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Plymouth Argyle vs Barnsley Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Plymouth Argyle Win |
@1.80
|
51.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.60
|
23.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Barnsley Win |
@4.00
|
24.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.50
|
63.0% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.40
|
37.0% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
8.7%
3-1
5.1%
3-2
4.0%
3-0
3.2%
4-1
2.2%
4-2
1.7%
4-0
1.4%