03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Leyton Orient Win |
32.1% |
41.2% |
9 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
55.7% |
59.9% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Can Wycombe Wanderers Get the Job Done at Leyton Orient?
The model makes Wycombe Wanderers 42% favourites here. Leyton Orient carry the 32% upset.
Wycombe Wanderers slight edge (42%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Leyton Orient have taken 8 points from their last five; Wycombe Wanderers are winless in their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this League One tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Wycombe Wanderers at 42%, but the draw sits at 26%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 56% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Leyton Orient are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Wycombe Wanderers manage 1.6 (1.6 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 56%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of Leyton Orient's home games and 57% of Wycombe Wanderers's away matches.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Leyton Orient vs Wycombe Wanderers Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Leyton Orient Win |
@2.75
|
32.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
26.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Wycombe Wanderers Win |
@2.40
|
41.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.70
|
55.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.05
|
44.3% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.6%
3-1
6.5%
2-2
6.2%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
5.0%
3-2
4.2%
4-1
3.3%
1-3
2.6%