Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd Predictions & Odds
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A Championship meeting between Stoke City (22nd, 3 pts) and Sheffield Utd (8th, 6 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
Stoke City will be looking to make home advantage count (W1 D0 L1 at home). Sheffield Utd's away record reads W0 D2 L0. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Stoke City's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf. Sheffield Utd are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.8 against 1.3 actual goals). They look due a few more. A concern for Sheffield Utd: they're giving up chances worth 2.6 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.7 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Stoke City create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Sheffield Utd create 1.8 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Sheffield Utd look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Sheffield Utd are creating chances worth 1.8 a game but only finishing 1.3. the underlying performance is better than the results show. A worry for Stoke City: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.1 a game, well below their 1.5 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. Sheffield Utd's defence is giving up chances. Worth 2.6 a game over their last 5 vs 1.7 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Stoke City average 1.0 goals per game and Sheffield Utd manage 1.3. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it 49% for three or more, so there's no strong lean on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 44%.
Both teams score in 61% of Stoke City's home games and 43% of Sheffield Utd's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Stoke City need points desperately. Sitting 22nd in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
In the last 10 meetings: Stoke City have won 2, Sheffield Utd 6, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 2.9 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Stoke City 1-2 Sheffield Utd, Sheffield Utd 4-0 Stoke City, Stoke City 0-2 Sheffield Utd.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Stoke City Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Sheffield Utd Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 12:30 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 43.9% probability.