Birmingham vs Middlesbrough Predictions & Odds
Odds & model pick drop in here once bookmakers price this fixture, check back closer to kickoff.
Get the model's verified verdict on Birmingham (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.
There's barely anything between these two. Birmingham (8th, 6 pts) and Middlesbrough (5th, 7 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Championship table.
Birmingham will be looking to make home advantage count (W0 D2 L0 at home). Middlesbrough's away record reads W0 D1 L1. The visitors need to start well or this could get away from them. Middlesbrough are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 2.0 against 1.8 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Birmingham create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Middlesbrough create 2.0 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.8. On the quality of chances, Middlesbrough look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Middlesbrough are creating chances worth 2.0 a game but only finishing 1.8. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Birmingham are scoring 1.3 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Middlesbrough manage 1.8 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 41%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 43%. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Birmingham and Middlesbrough together create chances worth 3.2 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of Birmingham's home games and 65% of Middlesbrough's away matches.
In the last 10 meetings: Birmingham have won 2, Middlesbrough 8, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 2.4 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Birmingham 1-3 Middlesbrough, Middlesbrough 2-1 Birmingham, Birmingham 0-1 Middlesbrough.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Birmingham Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Middlesbrough Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 43.4% probability.