03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Stockport County FC Win |
44.1% |
50.0% |
6 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
59.4% |
62.5% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 61% of Stockport County FC home games
01The read
Analysing Stockport County FC vs Leicester City: Who Wins?
The model makes Stockport County FC 44% favourites here. Leicester City carry the 31% upset.
Stockport County FC slight edge (44%) | Predicted: 2-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Stockport County FC have won three of their last five; Leicester City have lost three of their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this League One tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Stockport County FC edge it at 44% but a draw (25%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 61% of Stockport County FC's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 59% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Stockport County FC are scoring 2.1 a game (2.1 of those at home) and Leicester City manage 0.9 (0.9 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 59%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 61% of Stockport County FC's home games and 74% of Leicester City's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
Stockport County FC are all-out attack: 2.1 goals a game, but they leak 1.2 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Leicester City, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
Latest News
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Stockport County FC vs Leicester City Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Stockport County FC Win |
@2.10
|
44.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.50
|
25.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Leicester City Win |
@3.00
|
30.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.62
|
59.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.15
|
40.6% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.7%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.4%
3-0
5.2%
2-2
5.0%
3-2
2.8%
4-1
2.3%
4-0
2.2%