03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Mansfield Town Win |
25.9% |
32.3% |
6 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
57.8% |
60.6% |
3 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Can Huddersfield Town Get the Job Done at Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town 26%, the draw 27%, Huddersfield Town 48%. That's the shape of this one.
Huddersfield Town slight edge (48%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Mansfield Town have lost their last two; Huddersfield Town are unbeaten in their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this League One tie.
Our verdict
Too close to call with any conviction. Huddersfield Town edge it at 48% but a draw (27%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
📉
Home Wobble
Mansfield Town arrive off 2 straight defeats. The home crowd will need something early
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 61% of Huddersfield Town's matches this season
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 58% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals look likely here. Mansfield Town average 1.9 per game (1.9 at home) and Huddersfield Town chip in with 2.1 (2.1 away). Defensively, Mansfield Town concede 2.6 at home and Huddersfield Town leak 0.7 on the road. We make it 58% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming.
Both teams score in 57% of Mansfield Town's home games and 61% of Huddersfield Town's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Mansfield Town are all-out attack: 1.9 goals a game, but they leak 2.6 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Huddersfield Town, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Huddersfield Town are similarly well-balanced. 2.1 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
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Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Mansfield Town vs Huddersfield Town Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Mansfield Town Win |
@3.40
|
25.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
26.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Huddersfield Town Win |
@2.05
|
47.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.73
|
57.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.00
|
42.2% |
William Hill |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
9.4%
1-3
7.3%
0-3
5.7%
2-3
4.7%
1-4
4.3%
0-4
3.4%
2-4
2.8%
1-5
2.0%