SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Predictions & Odds
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SC Freiburg have taken 7 points from their last five; Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 7 points from their last four. Form gives little away going into this Bundesliga tie.
One thing to keep in mind about SC Freiburg. They're scoring 1.6 goals per game but the quality of chances they create only works out at 1.3. Scoring that much more than the chances suggest (+0.4), that kind of hot finishing usually cools off, so their results may be flattering their actual play. Borussia Mönchengladbach could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.5 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.1. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
SC Freiburg create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Borussia Mönchengladbach create 1.1 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of -0.6. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. SC Freiburg are scoring 1.6 goals a game off chances worth just 1.3. That's +0.4 more than the chances suggest: finishing hot. History says this kind of run usually cools off. Borussia Mönchengladbach are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.5 goals vs chance quality of 1.1). Both runs could cool off at once. A worry for SC Freiburg: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.0 a game, well below their 1.3 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Goals are a tough one to call here. SC Freiburg are scoring 1.6 a game (1.6 of those at home) and Borussia Mönchengladbach manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 82% of SC Freiburg's home games and 47% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's away matches.
Borussia Mönchengladbach prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for SC Freiburg against this setup.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%) and 1-2 (10%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | SC Freiburg Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Borussia Mönchengladbach Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.