FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions & Odds
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FC Augsburg have taken 7 points from their last four; Bayer Leverkusen have taken 7 points from their last four. Form gives little away going into this Bundesliga tie.
Interestingly, FC Augsburg look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.9 a game, but they're only converting 1.8 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Bayer Leverkusen come out at +0.6 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.3. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
FC Augsburg create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 2.2), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Bayer Leverkusen create 2.5 (giving up 1.9) for a balance of +0.6. On the quality of chances, Bayer Leverkusen look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. FC Augsburg should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game but they're only getting 1.8 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Goals are a tough one to call here. FC Augsburg are scoring 1.8 a game (1.8 of those at home) and Bayer Leverkusen manage 2.0 (2.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 59% of FC Augsburg's home games and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's away matches. FC Augsburg rarely keep clean sheets (15%) and Bayer Leverkusen almost always find the net (blanking just 12% of the time).
Bayer Leverkusen have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.5 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. The chance data suggests FC Augsburg will create openings. The chances they create are worth 1.9 a game and Bayer Leverkusen give up chances worth 1.9 on the road. Expect FC Augsburg to see plenty of the ball.
In the last 10 meetings: FC Augsburg have won 4, Bayer Leverkusen 6, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 2.8 goals per game. 5 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg, FC Augsburg 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen, Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 FC Augsburg, FC Augsburg 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (9%) and 1-2 (9%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FC Augsburg Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Bayer Leverkusen Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.