FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt Predictions & Odds
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FSV Mainz 05 have taken six points from their last four; Eintracht Frankfurt are winless in their last four. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Bundesliga tie.
Interestingly, FSV Mainz 05 look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 2.1 a game, but they're only converting 2.0 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: FSV Mainz 05 come out at +0.7 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances. FSV Mainz 05 have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 2.6 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 2.1. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
FSV Mainz 05 create chances worth 2.1 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them +0.7 a game on the balance. Eintracht Frankfurt create 1.2 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of -0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour FSV Mainz 05. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. FSV Mainz 05 should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 2.1 a game but they're only getting 2.0 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful. FSV Mainz 05 are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 2.6 a game over the last 5 vs 2.1 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals are a tough one to call here. FSV Mainz 05 are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Eintracht Frankfurt manage 1.5 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 59% of FSV Mainz 05's home games and 100% of Eintracht Frankfurt's away matches.
FSV Mainz 05 are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Eintracht Frankfurt, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Neither defence inspires confidence. Both sides rarely keep clean sheets. Open, attacking football is on the cards.
In the last 10 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, Eintracht Frankfurt 4, with 4 draws. These fixtures average 2.3 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt, Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FSV Mainz 05, FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt, Eintracht Frankfurt 1-3 FSV Mainz 05.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (8%) and 2-1 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | FSV Mainz 05 Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Eintracht Frankfurt Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Full FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt head-to-head history →
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.