Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cagliari?

Our model rates Cagliari as the favourite with a 40.7% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Parma 31.7%, draw 27.6%, Cagliari 40.7%.

Where can I watch Parma vs Cagliari?

Check official Serie A broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Parma vs Cagliari?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 31.7% probability and Under 2.5 goals 68.3%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

69% verified · 766 picks Serie A Saturday 22 August 2026, 19:45

Parma vs Cagliari Predictions & Odds

P Parma 31.7% @2.50

VS Draw 27.6%

C Cagliari 40.7% @2.90

Our model call Leans Cagliari, but only just A 41% call, draw at 28%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Parma 32% 2.50 Draw 28% 2.90 Cagliari 41% 2.90

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 68% 1.62 Over 2.5 32% 2.38 Over 1.5 @1.44

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 56% 1.83 Yes 44% 1.95

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	31.7%	44.1%	12 pts under
Parma Win	31.7%	41.7%	10 pts under
Both Teams to Score	44.5%	51.3%	7 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Match Stats

Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.

Over 10.5 Match Corners 45% (model) Corners: Parma avg 2.7 for/8.7 against, Cagliari avg 5.0 for/4.3 against → expected 10.3 match corners
Over 2.5 Match Cards 32% (model) Cards: Parma avg 0.7/game, Cagliari avg 1.3/game → expected 2.0 match cards
Over 20.5 Match Fouls 37% (model) Fouls: Parma avg 10.7/game, Cagliari avg 8.5/game → expected 19.2 match fouls
Over 22.5 Match Shots 53% (model) Shots: Parma avg 10.0/game, Cagliari avg 13.0/game → expected 23.0 match shots

Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Key Stats

01The read

Neighbours Collide: Parma and Cagliari Separated by Fine Margins

Parma 32%, the draw 28%, Cagliari 41%. That's the shape of this one.

Cagliari slight edge (41%) | Lower-scoring game likely (68%) | Predicted: 0-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Parma have lost three of their last five; Cagliari have won three of their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Serie A tie.

Our verdict

Too close to call with any conviction. Cagliari edge it at 41% but a draw (28%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.

Where's the value?

Our model spots value here: Cagliari to win at @2.90 (our model: 41%, bookmakers imply: 34%). A 6% edge over the market.

Key facts

😶

Blunt Attack Parma fail to score in 42% of their games. Creating chances has been a real problem

▸ Form & goals

The gap in chance quality is clear: Cagliari come out at -0.1 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.9. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Parma create chances worth 0.7 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.9 a game on the balance. Cagliari create 1.3 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of -0.1. On the quality of chances, Cagliari look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.

Parma average 0.8 goals per game and Cagliari manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 32% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.

Both teams score in 47% of Parma's home games and 63% of Cagliari's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (13%) and 1-1 (13%).

First Half Result

Parma HT 3.10
Draw HT 2.05
Cagliari HT 3.30

Team Intel

📊 Parma · xG

For: 0.69/g Against: 1.58/g

📊 Cagliari · xG

For: 1.29/g Against: 1.41/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Parma vs Cagliari Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Parma Win	@2.50	31.7%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@2.90	27.6%	William Hill
Match Result	Cagliari Win	@2.90	40.7%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.95	44.5%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.83	55.5%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@2.38	31.7%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@1.62	68.3%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.44	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@2.78	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@4.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.22	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Parma

1W streak

Last 5 WLLLW

At home WLW

Clean sheets 34% BTTS 39% FTS 42%

Cagliari

2W streak

Last 5 WWLDW

On the road WD

Clean sheets 21% BTTS 50% FTS 37%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 0-1 13.0%

1-1 13.0%

0-0 10.0%

1-0 10.0%

0-2 8.5%

2-0 5.0%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Over 6.5 corners 85% @1.22 Betano
Parma under 6.5 corners 84% @1.32 Unibet
Under 11.5 corners 83% @1.24 Unibet
Cagliari over 2.5 corners 83% @1.30 Unibet
Under 1.5 first half goals 80% @1.34 Betano
Under 3 goals 80% @1.27 Pinnacle
Cagliari under 5.5 corners 79% @1.34 Betano
Over 0.5 second half goals 79% @1.36 888Sport
Parma or Cagliari (double chance) 77% @1.42 1xBet
Cagliari under 1.5 goals 77% @1.37 Betano
Parma over 3.5 corners 75% @1.44 Betano
Parma over 0.5 goals 74% @1.39 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Parma v Cagliari builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 73% @ 1.37
2 Under 2.5 Goals 68% @ 1.46
3 Both Teams to Score - No 56% @ 1.80

@3.62 £10 returns £36.19

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 766 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Parma vs Cagliari: FAQs

Who will win Parma vs Cagliari?

Our model makes Cagliari the favourite with a 40.7% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Parma vs Cagliari?

Best available odds: Parma @ 2.50, Draw @ 2.90, Cagliari @ 2.90. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Parma vs Cagliari kick off?

Parma vs Cagliari kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Serie A.

Will both teams score in Parma vs Cagliari?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 44.5% probability.

Parma vs Cagliari prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Cagliari to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.