Crystal Palace vs Manchester City Predictions & Odds
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Crystal Palace have taken five points from their last five; Manchester City have won three of their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Premier League tie.
Interestingly, Crystal Palace look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.5 a game, but they're only converting 1.2 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Manchester City come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.0. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Crystal Palace create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.5), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Manchester City create 2.0 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.8. On the quality of chances, Manchester City look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Crystal Palace should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.5 a game but they're only getting 1.2 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Crystal Palace average 1.2 goals per game and Manchester City manage 1.9. Combined that's just 3.1. We make it only 8% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%). Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Crystal Palace and Manchester City together create chances worth 3.5 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams score in 53% of Crystal Palace's home games and 53% of Manchester City's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Manchester City are similarly well-balanced. 1.9 scored, 0.9 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%) and 0-1 (11%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Crystal Palace Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Manchester City Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 28.8% probability.