Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Derby?

Our model rates Derby as the favourite with a 40.6% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Charlton 31.5%, draw 27.9%, Derby 40.6%.

Where can I watch Charlton vs Derby?

Check official Championship broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Charlton vs Derby?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 37.3% probability and Under 2.5 goals 62.8%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

68% verified · 746 picks Championship Saturday 15 August 2026, 15:00

Charlton vs Derby Predictions & Odds

C Charlton 31.5% @2.62

VS Draw 27.9%

D Derby 40.6% @2.62

Our model call Leans Derby, but only just A 41% call, draw at 28%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Charlton 32% 2.62 Draw 28% 3.10 Derby 41% 2.62

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 63% 1.82 Over 2.5 37% 2.00 Over 1.5 @1.30

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 51% 2.00 Yes 49% 1.75

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	37.3%	51.5%	14 pts under
Both Teams to Score	48.6%	57.8%	9 pts under
Charlton Win	31.5%	40.0%	8 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

01The read

Neighbours Collide: Charlton and Derby Separated by Fine Margins

The model makes Derby 41% favourites here. Charlton carry the 32% upset.

Derby slight edge (41%) | Lower-scoring game likely (63%) | Predicted: 0-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Charlton have taken 7 points from their last five; Derby have lost their last two. Form gives little away going into this Championship tie.

Our verdict

A razor-thin margin: Derby at 41%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

📉

Cold Run Derby have lost their last 2. Confidence in that dressing room will be low

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 65% of Derby's matches this season

▸ Form & goals

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Charlton create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.4 a game on the balance. Derby create 1.4 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.1. On the quality of chances, Derby look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.

Charlton average 1.6 goals per game and Derby manage 1.4. Combined that's just 3.0. We make it only 37% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.

Both teams score in 52% of Charlton's home games and 65% of Derby's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

First Half Result

Charlton HT 3.10
Draw HT 2.10
Derby HT 3.25

Team Intel

📊 Charlton · xG

For: 1.20/g Against: 1.55/g

📊 Derby · xG

For: 1.44/g Against: 1.37/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Charlton vs Derby Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Charlton Win	@2.62	31.5%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.10	27.9%	William Hill
Match Result	Derby Win	@2.62	40.6%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.75	48.6%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.00	51.4%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@2.00	37.3%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@1.82	62.8%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.30	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@3.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@3.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.31	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Charlton

1W streak

Last 5 WLWLD

At home WL

Clean sheets 28% BTTS 54% FTS 22%

Derby

2L streak

Last 5 LLWLW

On the road WL

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 65% FTS 9%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-1 10.8%

1-0 7.2%

0-1 6.8%

2-0 5.8%

0-2 5.1%

0-0 4.5%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Charlton under 6.5 corners 85% @1.32 Unibet
Derby under 6 corners 84% @1.19 1xBet
Over 0.5 second half goals 81% @1.30 Betano
Under 2 second half goals 81% @1.24 Marathon Bet
Under 3.5 goals 80% @1.31 Betano
Charlton or Derby (double chance) 80% @1.36 Bet365
Under 11.5 corners 80% @1.35 Unibet
Charlton under 6 corners 80% @1.25 1xBet
Over 7.5 corners 79% @1.27 Unibet
Over 1.5 goals 78% @1.35 Betano
Charlton over 0.5 goals 78% @1.34 Betano
Derby over 0.5 goals 78% @1.31 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Charlton v Derby builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 76% @ 1.32
2 Over 1.5 Goals 74% @ 1.35

@1.78 £10 returns £17.83

View full breakdown

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The record

68%

verified hit rate across 746 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Charlton vs Derby: FAQs

Who will win Charlton vs Derby?

Our model makes Derby the favourite with a 40.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Charlton vs Derby?

Best available odds: Charlton @ 2.62, Draw @ 3.10, Derby @ 2.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Charlton vs Derby kick off?

Charlton vs Derby kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.

Will both teams score in Charlton vs Derby?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 48.6% probability.

Charlton vs Derby prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Derby to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.