03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
37.3% |
52.1% |
15 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
48.6% |
57.8% |
9 pts under
|
| Bolton Win |
41.8% |
48.1% |
6 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 65% of Bolton home games
01The read
Bolton vs Preston: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?
The model makes Bolton 42% favourites here. Preston carry the 31% upset.
Bolton slight edge (42%) | Lower-scoring game likely (63%) | Predicted: 2-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Bolton have won three of their last five; Preston have lost three of their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Championship tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Bolton at 42%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 63% of Bolton's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Bolton average 2.1 goals per game and Preston manage 1.2. Combined that's just 3.3. We make it only 37% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of Bolton's home games and 61% of Preston's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
Bolton are all-out attack: 2.1 goals a game, but they leak 1.3 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Preston, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Bolton HT
2.88
-
Draw HT
2.15
-
Preston HT
3.40
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Preston · xG
For: 1.65/g
Against: 1.95/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.35/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Bolton vs Preston Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Bolton Win |
@2.20
|
41.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.10
|
27.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Preston Win |
@3.20
|
30.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
48.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.95
|
51.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.00
|
37.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.83
|
62.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.30
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.32
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
9.4%
2-0
7.9%
1-0
7.7%
0-1
4.6%
0-0
3.7%
0-2
2.8%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 8 corners
85%
@1.18
1xBet
-
Bolton over 4 corners
85%
@1.18
1xBet
-
Preston under 6 corners
85%
@1.18
1xBet
-
Bolton over 0.5 goals
84%
@1.27
Betano
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Under 12.5 corners
82%
@1.29
Betano
-
Bolton under 7 corners
81%
@1.23
1xBet
-
Under 2 second half goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Bolton under 2 goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
80%
@1.32
Betano
-
Bolton or Preston (double chance)
80%
@1.33
William Hill
-
Over 1.5 goals
79%
@1.34
Betano
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