03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
35.6% |
49.5% |
14 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
47.5% |
56.2% |
9 pts under
|
| Draw |
28.3% |
33.1% |
5 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 61% of Stoke City home games
01The read
Stoke City vs Swansea: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?
Stoke City 46%, the draw 28%, Swansea 38%. That's the shape of this one.
Stoke City slight edge (46%) | Lower-scoring game likely (64%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Stoke City have lost four of their last five; Swansea have taken 7 points from their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Championship tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Stoke City at 46%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
▸ Form & goals
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Stoke City create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Swansea create 1.4 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for Stoke City: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.1 a game, well below their 1.5 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.
Stoke City average 0.8 goals per game and Swansea manage 1.4. Combined that's just 2.2. We make it only 36% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Both teams score in 61% of Stoke City's home games and 48% of Swansea's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Stoke City HT
2.90
-
Draw HT
2.10
-
Swansea HT
3.40
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Stoke City · xG
For: 1.45/g
Against: 1.69/g
📊 Swansea · xG
For: 1.40/g
Against: 1.50/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Stoke City vs Swansea Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Stoke City Win |
@2.40
|
46.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.10
|
28.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Swansea Win |
@2.90
|
37.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.80
|
47.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.95
|
52.5% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@2.10
|
35.6% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.75
|
64.4% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.36
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@4.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.27
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
6.7%
2-0
3.4%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Stoke City over 4 corners
85%
@1.18
1xBet
-
Over 8 corners
84%
@1.19
1xBet
-
Under 2 second half goals
83%
@1.20
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
83%
@1.27
Betano
-
Under 12.5 corners
83%
@1.29
Betano
-
Stoke City under 7 corners
81%
@1.23
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
81%
@1.33
Betano
-
Stoke City over 0.5 goals
79%
@1.32
Betano
-
Stoke City or Swansea (double chance)
78%
@1.36
Bet365
-
Over 1.5 goals
76%
@1.39
Betano
-
Under 1.5 first half goals
75%
@1.44
Betano
-
Swansea over 0.5 goals
75%
@1.40
Bet365
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