03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
50.8% |
61.0% |
10 pts under
|
| Portsmouth Win |
38.2% |
47.6% |
9 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
52.0% |
55.6% |
4 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Portsmouth vs QPR: What to Expect
38% against 36%: the model can barely split Portsmouth and QPR.
Portsmouth slight edge (38%)
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Portsmouth at @2.25 for this Championship tie, with QPR out at @3.00.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Portsmouth at 38%, but the draw sits at 26%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚖
Toss-Up
Just 3% between these two. This could go either way
▸ Form & goals
This one is wide open according to the bookmakers. Portsmouth at @2.25 (38%) and QPR at @3.00 (36%) are closely matched, with the draw at @3.30 (26%) very much in play. When the odds are this tight, home advantage could be the deciding factor.
It's a coin-flip whether we see three or more, and we make it 52%. Neither a high-scoring game nor a tight one is much more likely than the other. For something steadier, two or more goals at @1.28 is the more conservative option.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Portsmouth HT
2.70
-
Draw HT
2.20
-
QPR HT
3.50
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Portsmouth · xG
For: 1.32/g
Against: 1.30/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.32/g, value possible
📊 QPR · xG
For: 1.28/g
Against: 1.33/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Portsmouth vs QPR Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Portsmouth Win |
@2.25
|
38.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
26.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
QPR Win |
@3.00
|
35.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.70
|
50.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.05
|
49.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
52.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.97
|
48.0% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.28
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.80
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.37
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
85%
@1.23
Betano
-
Portsmouth over 0.5 goals
84%
@1.25
Betano
-
Under 12.5 corners
84%
@1.30
Unibet
-
Portsmouth over 4 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Portsmouth under 7 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Over 8 corners
83%
@1.21
1xBet
-
Over 1.5 goals
82%
@1.30
Betano
-
Portsmouth or QPR (double chance)
80%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Portsmouth under 2 goals
79%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Under 2 second half goals
78%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
77%
@1.37
Pinnacle
-
QPR over 0.5 goals
77%
@1.35
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →