03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
38.9% |
53.8% |
15 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
48.6% |
57.8% |
9 pts under
|
| Norwich Win |
46.1% |
52.4% |
6 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Bragging Rights at Stake: Norwich vs West Brom
The model makes Norwich 46% favourites here. West Brom carry the 26% upset.
Norwich slight edge (46%) | Lower-scoring game likely (61%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Norwich have won three of their last five; West Brom have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Championship tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Norwich at 46%, but the draw sits at 28%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 61% of Norwich's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Norwich average 2.4 per game and West Brom chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Norwich create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.4), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. West Brom create 1.7 (giving up 0.8) for a balance of +0.9. On the quality of chances, West Brom look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Norwich average 2.4 goals per game and West Brom manage 2.0. Combined that's just 4.4. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Norwich and West Brom together create chances worth 3.0 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams score in 57% of Norwich's home games and 48% of West Brom's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Norwich are all-out attack: 2.4 goals a game, but they leak 1.4 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at West Brom, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. West Brom are similarly well-balanced. 2.0 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Norwich HT
2.62
-
Draw HT
2.20
-
West Brom HT
3.80
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Norwich · xG
For: 1.37/g
Against: 1.37/g
📊 West Brom · xG
For: 1.67/g
Against: 0.77/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.38/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Norwich vs West Brom Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Norwich Win |
@2.00
|
46.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
27.9% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
West Brom Win |
@3.60
|
25.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
48.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.95
|
51.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
38.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.91
|
61.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.30
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.61
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.35
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
6.1%
2-0
4.6%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Norwich under 2.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Betano
-
Norwich or Draw (double chance)
83%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Under 11.5 corners
83%
@1.38
Unibet
-
Norwich over 4 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Norwich under 7 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
83%
@1.25
William Hill
-
Norwich or West Brom (double chance)
81%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Over 1.5 goals
80%
@1.31
Betano
-
Over 7.5 corners
80%
@1.31
1xBet
-
Under 2 second half goals
79%
@1.27
Marathon Bet
-
Under 3.5 goals
78%
@1.35
Betano
-
West Brom over 2.5 corners
78%
@1.30
Unibet
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