03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
44.2% |
61.7% |
18 pts under
|
| Middlesbrough Win |
63.6% |
76.9% |
13 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
45.3% |
52.4% |
7 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🔥
Lincoln are on a 4-game winning streak
01The read
Neighbours Collide: Middlesbrough and Lincoln Separated by Fine Margins
The model makes Middlesbrough 64% favourites here. Lincoln carry the 17% upset.
Middlesbrough to win (64%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
Middlesbrough have taken five points from their last five; Lincoln have won four straight. The visitors bring the sharper form into this Championship tie.
Our verdict
Middlesbrough shade it at 64%, though Lincoln won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Middlesbrough with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.
Our pick
Our PickMiddlesbrough to win at @1.33. Model probability 64% vs implied 75%. The market is 12pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🔥
Travelling Hot
Lincoln bring a 4-game winning run into this one
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Middlesbrough are scoring 1.5 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Lincoln manage 2.4 (2.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 44%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 45%.
Both teams score in 48% of Middlesbrough's home games and 39% of Lincoln's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Lincoln have goals in them (2.4 per game) but their record at the back (1.2 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Middlesbrough HT
1.73
-
Draw HT
2.60
-
Lincoln HT
7.50
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Middlesbrough · xG
For: 2.00/g
Against: 1.23/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.60/g, value possible
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Middlesbrough vs Lincoln Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Middlesbrough Win |
@1.33
|
63.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.80
|
19.5% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Lincoln Win |
@8.50
|
16.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.91
|
45.3% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.80
|
54.7% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
44.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.23
|
55.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.22
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.62
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
6.4%
2-0
4.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 4 goals
83%
@1.23
BetVictor
-
Under 12.5 corners
83%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Middlesbrough under 8.5 corners
83%
@1.33
Unibet
-
Over 8 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.28
Betano
-
Middlesbrough over 5 corners
82%
@1.22
1xBet
-
Middlesbrough under 3 goals
79%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Lincoln under 4.5 corners
79%
@1.29
1xBet
-
Over 2 goals
79%
@1.29
BetVictor
-
Lincoln under 1 goals
79%
@1.27
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
78%
@1.34
Betano
-
Over 1 second half goals
78%
@1.29
Marathon Bet
Build a slip from these markets →