03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
42.7% |
58.8% |
16 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
51.8% |
64.1% |
12 pts under
|
| Cardiff Win |
34.8% |
44.6% |
10 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Bragging Rights at Stake: Cardiff vs Wrexham
35% against 39%: the model can barely split Cardiff and Wrexham.
Wrexham slight edge (39%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Cardiff have won four of their last five; Wrexham have taken 7 points from their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Championship tie.
Our verdict
A razor-thin margin: Wrexham at 39%, but the draw sits at 27%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 65% of Wrexham's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Goals are a tough one to call here. Cardiff are scoring 2.8 a game (2.8 of those at home) and Wrexham manage 1.0 (1.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 43%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%.
Both teams score in 48% of Cardiff's home games and 57% of Wrexham's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Cardiff are all-out attack: 2.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.7 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Wrexham, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Cardiff HT
2.88
-
Draw HT
2.25
-
Wrexham HT
3.10
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Wrexham · xG
For: 1.12/g
Against: 1.47/g
⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.31/g, possibly running hot
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Cardiff vs Wrexham Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Cardiff Win |
@2.30
|
34.8% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.30
|
26.7% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Wrexham Win |
@2.88
|
38.5% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.62
|
51.8% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.20
|
48.2% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.73
|
42.7% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.14
|
57.3% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.22
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.33
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.45
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
9.1%
2-0
7.1%
1-0
6.8%
0-1
4.4%
0-0
3.3%
0-2
2.9%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 7.5 corners
85%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 corners
85%
@1.29
Unibet
-
Over 1.5 goals
84%
@1.25
Betano
-
Cardiff over 0.5 goals
84%
@1.23
Betano
-
Cardiff over 4 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Cardiff under 7 corners
83%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
83%
@1.27
Betano
-
Wrexham under 2 goals
83%
@1.21
Marathon Bet
-
Cardiff or Wrexham (double chance)
82%
@1.30
William Hill
-
Wrexham over 0.5 goals
81%
@1.29
Betano
-
Cardiff under 2 goals
78%
@1.28
Marathon Bet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
77%
@1.39
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →