03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
41.1% |
57.1% |
16 pts under
|
| Wolves Win |
57.6% |
66.7% |
9 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
46.9% |
54.9% |
8 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Wolves vs Blackburn: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?
Wolves 58%, the draw 25%, Blackburn 17%. That's the shape of this one.
Wolves slight edge (58%) | Predicted: 1-0
Confidence
★★★★★
The bookmakers open Wolves at @1.55 for this Championship tie, with Blackburn out at @5.50.
Our verdict
We lean towards Wolves at 58%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.
Our pick
Our PickWolves to win at @1.55. Model probability 58% vs implied 65%. The market is 7pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
▸ Form & goals
A concern for Blackburn: they're giving up chances worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.5 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Wolves create chances worth 1.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them -0.6 a game on the balance. Blackburn create 1.1 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of -0.5. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Blackburn's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Wolves average 0.0 goals per game and Blackburn manage 1.2. Combined that's just 1.2. We make it only 41% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
▸ Team news & context
Wolves do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
First Half Result
-
Wolves HT
2.00
-
Draw HT
2.40
-
Blackburn HT
5.00
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Wolves · xG
For: 1.02/g
Against: 1.65/g
📊 Blackburn · xG
For: 1.06/g
Against: 1.53/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Wolves vs Blackburn Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Wolves Win |
@1.55
|
57.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.90
|
25.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Blackburn Win |
@5.50
|
17.0% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.83
|
46.9% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@1.85
|
53.1% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.80
|
41.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.05
|
58.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.25
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.42
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-0
19.1%
2-0
6.7%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
85%
@1.25
Betano
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
85%
@1.22
William Hill
-
Wolves over 1 goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Over 7.5 corners
85%
@1.24
Unibet
-
Wolves under 7.5 corners
84%
@1.33
Unibet
-
Under 12 corners
84%
@1.19
1xBet
-
Blackburn under 1.5 goals
83%
@1.24
Betano
-
Over 1.5 goals
83%
@1.27
Betano
-
Blackburn under 5.5 corners
81%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Wolves under 7 corners
80%
@1.25
1xBet
-
Blackburn over 3 corners
79%
@1.26
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
77%
@1.40
Betano
Build a slip from these markets →