Burnley vs Derby Predictions & Odds
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Burnley (23rd, 2 pts) host Derby (16th, 4 pts) in the Championship. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
Derby are no pushovers away from home. W1 D0 L1 from 2 away trips, scoring 1.5 per game on the road. Burnley (W0 D2 L0 at home) can't afford to take this lightly. A concern for Derby: they're giving up chances worth 1.3 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.0 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Burnley create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 2.0), leaving them -1.1 a game on the balance. Derby create 1.5 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +0.5. On the quality of chances, Derby look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Derby's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.3 a game over their last 5 vs 1.0 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Burnley are scoring 1.3 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Derby manage 1.3 (1.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 62%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%. A word of caution on the chances: even though the goals numbers point up, the combined chance quality is only worth 2.4 a game. These sides aren't creating as much as their goal tallies suggest. Hot finishing has flattered the numbers.
Both teams score in 42% of Burnley's home games and 65% of Derby's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed. Burnley rarely keep clean sheets (11%) and Derby almost always find the net (blanking just 9% of the time).
Burnley need points desperately. Sitting 23rd in the table, every match feels like a cup final now.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Burnley Win | @0.00 | 0.0% | |
| Match Result | Derby Win | @0.00 | 0.0% |
Our model rating for this fixture will publish once bookmakers price the market and team form firms up, check back closer to kick-off.
Burnley vs Derby kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 in the Championship.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 55.2% probability.