Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Coventry?

Our model rates Arsenal as the favourite with a 69.4% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Arsenal 69.4%, draw 18.1%, Coventry 12.6%.

Where can I watch Arsenal vs Coventry?

Check official Premier League broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Arsenal vs Coventry?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 46.8% probability and Under 2.5 goals 53.2%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

69% verified · 765 picks Premier League Friday 21 August 2026, 20:00

Arsenal vs Coventry Predictions & Odds

A Arsenal 69.4% @1.18

VS Draw 18.1%

C Coventry 12.6% @13.00

Our model call Clear favourites: Arsenal A 69% call, draw at 18%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Arsenal 69% 1.18 Draw 18% 7.00 Coventry 13% 13.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 53% 2.47 Over 2.5 47% 1.57 Over 1.5 @1.20

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 62% 1.55 Yes 38% 2.40

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

69% verified · logged before kick-off

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	46.8%	65.4%	19 pts under
Arsenal Win	69.4%	87.7%	18 pts under
Both Teams to Score	37.8%	41.7%	4 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🔥 Coventry are on a 3-game winning streak

01The read

Bragging Rights at Stake: Arsenal vs Coventry

Coventry arrive on a 3-game winning run, yet the model still only gives them 13% here.

Arsenal to win (69%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five; Coventry have won three straight. Form gives little away going into this Premier League tie.

Our verdict

Arsenal shade it at 69%, though Coventry won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Arsenal with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.

Our pick

Our PickArsenal to win at @1.18. Model probability 69% vs implied 85%. The market is 15pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model69%

Market85%

Key facts

🧤

Defensive Wall Arsenal keep clean sheets in 50% of games. One of the tightest defences around

🔥

Creative Force Coventry creating chances worth 2.0 a game lately. Plenty of openings even away from home

🔥

Travelling Hot Coventry bring a 3-game winning run into this one

▸ Form & goals

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Arsenal create chances worth 1.7 a game (and give up chances worth 0.8), leaving them +0.9 a game on the balance. Coventry create 2.1 (giving up 1.2) for a balance of +0.9. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.

Goals are a tough one to call here. Arsenal are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Coventry manage 4.0 (4.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 47%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 38%. Two or more goals at @1.20 is a steadier alternative for accas.

Both teams score in 42% of Arsenal's home games and 57% of Coventry's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Arsenal do it the hard way: only 1.3 a game up top, but a mean 0.6 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. Coventry are similarly well-balanced. 4.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (4%) and 1-0 (4%).

First Half Result

Arsenal HT 1.55
Draw HT 2.75
Coventry HT 11.00

Team Intel

📊 Arsenal · xG

For: 1.72/g Against: 0.84/g

📊 Coventry · xG

For: 2.09/g Against: 1.15/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Arsenal vs Coventry Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Arsenal Win	@1.18	69.4%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@7.00	18.1%	William Hill
Match Result	Coventry Win	@13.00	12.6%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@2.40	37.8%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.55	62.2%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.57	46.8%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.47	53.2%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.20	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@5.20	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.57	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Arsenal

5 unbeaten

Last 5 DWWWW

At home WWWW

Clean sheets 50% BTTS 47% FTS 8%

Coventry

3W streak

Last 3 WWW

On the road W

Clean sheets 37% BTTS 59% FTS 15%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 4.3%

1-0 3.8%

2-0 1.9%

3-2 1.6%

3-1 1.4%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Under 4.5 goals 85% @1.23 Betano
Arsenal under 10.5 corners 85% @1.18 Unibet
Over 2 goals 83% @1.26 Pinnacle
Coventry over 1.5 corners 83% @1.21 Unibet
Under 2 first half goals 82% @1.22 Marathon Bet
Under 13.5 corners 81% @1.23 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 81% @1.31 Betano
Coventry under 4.5 corners 81% @1.24 Unibet
Under 2.5 second half goals 80% @1.32 Betano
Arsenal over 1.5 goals 80% @1.31 Betano
Arsenal under 3.5 goals 79% @1.33 Unibet
Over 1 second half goals 78% @1.28 Marathon Bet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Arsenal v Coventry builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 Arsenal 69% @ 1.44
2 Over 1.5 Goals 80% @ 1.24
3 Both Teams to Score - No 62% @ 1.61

@2.88 £10 returns £28.82

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The record

69%

verified hit rate across 765 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Arsenal vs Coventry: FAQs

Who will win Arsenal vs Coventry?

Our model makes Arsenal the favourite with a 69.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Arsenal vs Coventry?

Best available odds: Arsenal @ 1.18, Draw @ 7.00, Coventry @ 13.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Arsenal vs Coventry kick off?

Arsenal vs Coventry kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 20:00 in the Premier League.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Coventry?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 37.8% probability.

Arsenal vs Coventry prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Arsenal to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.