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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 48.0% | 54.6% | 7 pts under |
| Draw | 25.5% | 31.7% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Three points on the line and a story to write. Everton host Crystal Palace.
Neck and neck in the Premier League standings. Everton (13th, 49 pts) host Crystal Palace (15th, 45 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Everton will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Crystal Palace travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Everton at just 47%. With the draw at 26%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Everton, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Crystal Palace are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.5 against 1.1 actual goals). They look due a few more. A concern for Crystal Palace: they're giving up chances worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.5 for the season). The defence is creaking.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Everton create chances worth 1.3 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.3 a game on the balance. Crystal Palace create 1.5 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of 0.0. On the quality of chances, Crystal Palace look the stronger side. they create more and give up less. Crystal Palace are creating chances worth 1.5 a game but only finishing 1.1. the underlying performance is better than the results show. Crystal Palace's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 vs 1.5 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.
This doesn't look like a high-scoring one. Everton average 1.2 goals per game and Crystal Palace manage 1.1. Combined that's just 2.3. We make it only 48% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 41%.
Both teams score in 53% of Everton's home games and 53% of Crystal Palace's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (8%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Everton Win | @2.15 | 46.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 25.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Crystal Palace Win | @3.30 | 27.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.91 | 48.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.85 | 52.0% | William Hill |
Our model makes Everton the favourite with a 46.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Everton @ 2.15, Draw @ 3.25, Crystal Palace @ 3.30. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Everton vs Crystal Palace kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 41.0% probability.
Our top prediction is Everton to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.