03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Over 2.5 Goals |
38.9% |
53.5% |
15 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
48.6% |
59.9% |
11 pts under
|
| Ipswich Win |
31.2% |
39.1% |
8 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Neighbours Collide: Ipswich and Sunderland Separated by Fine Margins
Ipswich 31%, the draw 28%, Sunderland 41%. That's the shape of this one.
Sunderland slight edge (41%) | Lower-scoring game likely (61%) | Predicted: 0-1
Confidence
★★★★★
Ipswich are unbeaten in their last five; Sunderland have taken 8 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Premier League tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Sunderland at just 41%. With the draw at 28%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Sunderland, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
🔥
Chances Flowing
Ipswich creating chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
▸ Form & goals
Interestingly, Ipswich look better than their results show. The quality of chances they create is worth 1.9 a game, but they're only converting 1.8 goals. They're creating more than the scoreline shows and look due a few more goals. The gap in chance quality is clear: Ipswich come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Ipswich create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Sunderland create 1.3 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of -0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Ipswich. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Ipswich should be scoring more. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game but they're only getting 1.8 goals. When the finishing clicks, they'll be a handful.
Ipswich average 1.8 goals per game and Sunderland manage 1.5. Combined that's just 3.3. We make it only 39% for three or more, so the lean is towards a lower-scoring game. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%. Two or more goals at @1.30 is a steadier alternative for accas. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Ipswich and Sunderland together create chances worth 3.2 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.
Both teams score in 52% of Ipswich's home games and 47% of Sunderland's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Ipswich are all-out attack: 1.8 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Sunderland, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%) and 1-0 (8%).
First Half Result
-
Ipswich HT
3.10
-
Draw HT
2.25
-
Sunderland HT
2.90
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Ipswich · xG
For: 1.91/g
Against: 1.13/g
💎 Underscoring xG by 0.31/g, value possible
📊 Sunderland · xG
For: 1.25/g
Against: 1.32/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Ipswich vs Sunderland Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Ipswich Win |
@2.70
|
31.2% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.20
|
28.1% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Sunderland Win |
@2.50
|
40.7% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.75
|
48.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.05
|
51.4% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.91
|
38.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@1.96
|
61.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.30
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@3.70
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@3.40
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.35
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-1
10.2%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.7%
0-1
5.4%
0-0
4.3%
0-2
3.3%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Sunderland under 2 goals
84%
@1.20
1xBet
-
Sunderland over 2.5 corners
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Sunderland under 6.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Over 0.5 second half goals
82%
@1.25
William Hill
-
Over 1.5 goals
80%
@1.32
Betano
-
Ipswich or Sunderland (double chance)
80%
@1.36
Bet365
-
Sunderland over 0.5 goals
79%
@1.31
Betano
-
Ipswich under 6.5 corners
79%
@1.27
Unibet
-
Ipswich over 0.5 goals
78%
@1.32
Betano
-
Under 3.5 goals
77%
@1.35
Pinnacle
-
Under 2 second half goals
77%
@1.30
Marathon Bet
-
Over 7.5 corners
77%
@1.30
Unibet
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