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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 24.5% | 30.3% | 6 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 58.2% | 63.7% | 5 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
In-form Tottenham Hotspur travel to Brentford knowing momentum is on their side.
A Premier League meeting between Brentford (9th, 53 pts) and Tottenham Hotspur (17th, 41 pts). Two sides with their own objectives and plenty to play for.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Brentford will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Tottenham Hotspur travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
Marginal call: Brentford at just 49%. With the draw at 25%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Brentford, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Our model spots value here: Brentford to win at @2.38 (our model: 49%, bookmakers imply: 42%). A 7% edge over the market.
The travelling Tottenham Hotspur fans arrive with a spring in their step, and rightly so. recent form reads W-L-D-W-W. That W-L-D-W-W away form is genuinely impressive. Brentford have been wobbling (D-D-L-W-L) recent form reads D-D-L-W-L. But home crowds have a way of dragging a side through, and Brentford will fancy that their own supporters can be the difference when it matters. Tottenham Hotspur have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Brentford create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them -0.2 a game on the balance. Tottenham Hotspur create 1.2 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Brentford are scoring 1.5 a game (1.5 of those at home) and Tottenham Hotspur manage 1.3 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 58%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 47%.
Both teams score in 58% of Brentford's home games and 53% of Tottenham Hotspur's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Tottenham Hotspur travel here with relegation breathing down their neck. At 17th, they can't afford to drop many more points.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (4%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Brentford Win | @2.38 | 49.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.50 | 24.5% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Tottenham Hotspur Win | @2.75 | 42.9% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.62 | 58.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.25 | 41.8% | William Hill |
Our model makes Brentford the favourite with a 49.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Brentford @ 2.38, Draw @ 3.50, Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.75. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Brentford vs Tottenham Hotspur kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 17:30 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.4% probability.
Our top prediction is Brentford to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.