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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City Win | 63.6% | 73.5% | 10 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 67.6% | 73.5% | 6 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Manchester City arrive as the price says they should win. The question is how comfortably.
Manchester City (2nd, 78 pts) host Bournemouth (6th, 57 pts) in the Premier League. Both sides will be targeting three points here.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Manchester City will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Bournemouth travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
We lean towards Manchester City at 64%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.
Our PickManchester City to win at @1.44. Model probability 64% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Bournemouth have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average. Season-long, Manchester City average 2.1 points per game compared to Bournemouth's 1.5. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Bournemouth are creating better chances than their goal return suggests (chance quality of 1.8 against 1.5 actual goals). They look due a few more.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Manchester City create chances worth 2.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.3), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Bournemouth create 1.8 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.5. The underlying numbers clearly favour Manchester City. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Bournemouth are creating chances worth 1.8 a game but only finishing 1.5. the underlying performance is better than the results show.
Goals look likely here. Manchester City average 2.0 per game (2.0 at home) and Bournemouth chip in with 1.5 (1.5 away). Defensively, Manchester City concede 0.9 at home and Bournemouth leak 1.4 on the road. We make it 68% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 49%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Manchester City create chances worth 2.0 a game and Bournemouth 1.8. Combined, that's 3.8 a game from open play alone.
Both teams score in 47% of Manchester City's home games and 68% of Bournemouth's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
The stakes are high for Manchester City at this stage of the season. Their fans will expect a performance, and the home support will be vocal in driving them on. Bournemouth face a tough afternoon.
Manchester City are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 0.9 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Bournemouth, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (10%) and 3-1 (6%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Manchester City Win | @1.44 | 63.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.75 | 19.4% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Bournemouth Win | @5.80 | 15.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.36 | 67.6% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.90 | 32.4% | William Hill |
Our model makes Manchester City the favourite with a 63.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Manchester City @ 1.44, Draw @ 4.75, Bournemouth @ 5.80. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Manchester City vs Bournemouth kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 14:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 49.1% probability.
Our top prediction is Manchester City to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.