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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest Win | 35.6% | 47.6% | 12 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50.2% | 54.6% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Form, fitness, fine margins. Nottingham Forest and Leeds United meet in a fixture that could swing either way.
Neck and neck in the Premier League standings. Nottingham Forest (16th, 44 pts) host Leeds United (14th, 47 pts) in a contest that promises intensity.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Nottingham Forest will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Leeds United travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
A razor-thin margin: Leeds United at 38%, but the draw sits at 24%. Covering two of the three results is the sensible approach when the margins are this fine.
Our model spots value here: Leeds United to win at @3.10 (our model: 38%, bookmakers imply: 32%). A 6% edge over the market.
Nottingham Forest's home form is particularly impressive right now. They're performing above their season average on their own turf.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Nottingham Forest are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Leeds United manage 1.3 (1.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 46%.
Both teams score in 47% of Nottingham Forest's home games and 50% of Leeds United's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (12%) and 1-0 (9%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Nottingham Forest Win | @2.20 | 35.6% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.25 | 24.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Leeds United Win | @3.10 | 38.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.95 | 50.2% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @1.83 | 49.8% | William Hill |
Our model makes Leeds United the favourite with a 38.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Nottingham Forest @ 2.20, Draw @ 3.25, Leeds United @ 3.10. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds United kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 in the Premier League.
Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 45.7% probability.
Our top prediction is Leeds United to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.