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Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market | Our model | Bookies imply | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester United Win | 60.0% | 73.5% | 14 pts under |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54.8% | 58.8% | 4 pts under |
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
All eyes on Hull City as Manchester United travel to face Hull City.
Hull City take on Manchester United in the Premier League. Let's break down what our data says about this one.
The lead strikers on both sides carry the narrative here. Hull City will lean on whoever's hot in front of goal, while Manchester United travel with the same brief: find a way past a back four that's been organised more often than not this season.
The data leans towards Manchester United (60%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Hull City have the tools to make this uncomfortable.
Our PickManchester United to win at @1.44. Model probability 60% vs implied 69%. priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.
Manchester United have been outstanding on the road recently. Their away form is significantly better than their season average.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Hull City create chances worth 1.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Manchester United create 1.6 (giving up 1.5) for a balance of +0.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Hull City are scoring 1.3 a game (1.3 of those at home) and Manchester United manage 1.8 (1.8 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 55%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 65% of Hull City's home games and 74% of Manchester United's away matches.
Manchester United have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (10%) and 1-2 (9%).
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Hull City Win | @7.00 | 15.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @4.20 | 25.0% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Manchester United Win | @1.44 | 60.0% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.73 | 54.8% | William Hill |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.05 | 45.2% | William Hill |
Detailed league stats unavailable for this fixture. Our model uses form and goals data instead. See the writeup below.
Our model makes Manchester United the favourite with a 60.0% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.
Best available odds: Hull City @ 7.00, Draw @ 4.20, Manchester United @ 1.44. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Hull City vs Manchester United kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:30 in the Premier League.
Our top prediction is Manchester United to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.