03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Both Teams to Score |
52.4% |
65.4% |
13 pts under
|
| Union Berlin Win |
35.4% |
43.9% |
8 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
59.9% |
60.6% |
1 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
Key Stats
🎯
Both teams scored in 71% of Union Berlin home games
01The read
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?
35% against 38%: the model can barely split Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt.
Eintracht Frankfurt slight edge (38%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Union Berlin have taken 7 points from their last five; Eintracht Frankfurt are winless in their last five. The momentum is with the hosts going into this Bundesliga tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Eintracht Frankfurt at just 38%. With the draw at 27%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Eintracht Frankfurt, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 62% of Union Berlin's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
🎯
Goals Lean
We make it 60% for three or more goals in this one
▸ Form & goals
Union Berlin have been even sharper lately. The chances they create are worth 1.9 a game over their last 5 compared to a season average of 1.4. They're creating more as the season goes on.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Union Berlin create chances worth 1.4 a game (and give up chances worth 1.9), leaving them -0.5 a game on the balance. Eintracht Frankfurt create 1.3 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. Union Berlin are trending upwards. Their chances are worth 1.9 a game over the last 5 vs 1.4 for the season. They're in a real attacking groove.
Goals look likely here. Union Berlin average 2.2 per game (2.2 at home) and Eintracht Frankfurt chip in with 1.4 (1.4 away). Defensively, Union Berlin concede 1.6 at home and Eintracht Frankfurt leak 2.2 on the road. We make it 60% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 52%. Two or more goals at @1.22 is a steadier alternative for accas.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 71% of Union Berlin's home games and 100% of Eintracht Frankfurt's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
Union Berlin are all-out attack: 2.2 goals a game, but they leak 1.6 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Eintracht Frankfurt, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at.
In the last 10 meetings: Union Berlin have won 4, Eintracht Frankfurt 3, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.5 goals per game. 3 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt, Eintracht Frankfurt 3-4 Union Berlin, Eintracht Frankfurt 1-2 Union Berlin, Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 2-2 (7%).
First Half Result
-
Union Berlin HT
2.70
-
Draw HT
2.30
-
Eintracht Frankfurt HT
3.25
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Union Berlin · xG
For: 1.44/g
Against: 1.92/g
📊 Eintracht Frankfurt · xG
For: 1.33/g
Against: 1.58/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Union Berlin Win |
@2.45
|
35.4% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.40
|
27.0% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Eintracht Frankfurt Win |
@2.62
|
37.6% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.60
|
52.4% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.30
|
47.6% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.67
|
59.9% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.27
|
40.1% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.22
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@4.35
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.75
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.50
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Head to Head
4 Home Wins
3 Draws
3 Away Wins
2.5
Avg Goals
4/10
BTTS
3/10
Over 2.5
2026-02-06
Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
2025-09-21
Union Berlin 4-3 Eintracht Frankfurt
2025-03-09
Union Berlin 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
2024-10-27
Union Berlin 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt
2024-03-30
Union Berlin 0-0 Eintracht Frankfurt
2023-11-04
Union Berlin 0-3 Eintracht Frankfurt
2023-04-04
Union Berlin 0-2 Eintracht Frankfurt
2023-03-19
Union Berlin 2-0 Eintracht Frankfurt
2022-10-01
Union Berlin 0-2 Eintracht Frankfurt
2022-04-17
Union Berlin 2-0 Eintracht Frankfurt
Full Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
2-1
9.0%
2-2
6.7%
3-1
6.6%
1-2
6.1%
3-2
4.9%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
3.6%
2-3
3.4%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 1.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Betano
-
Union Berlin over 0.5 goals
85%
@1.23
Betano
-
Under 2 first half goals
85%
@1.18
Marathon Bet
-
Under 4 goals
84%
@1.19
Marathon Bet
-
Over 7.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Union Berlin over 3.5 corners
83%
@1.21
Unibet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
82%
@1.29
Betano
-
Eintracht Frankfurt over 0.5 goals
82%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Eintracht Frankfurt over 2.5 corners
80%
@1.25
Unibet
-
Union Berlin or Eintracht Frankfurt (double chance)
79%
@1.32
Marathon Bet
-
Eintracht Frankfurt under 2 goals
79%
@1.26
Marathon Bet
-
Under 12.5 corners
79%
@1.26
Unibet
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