Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?

Our model rates Borussia Dortmund as the favourite with a 64.5% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Borussia Dortmund 64.5%, draw 20.9%, Hamburger SV 14.5%.

Where can I watch Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?

Check official Bundesliga broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 65.4% probability and Under 2.5 goals 34.6%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 810 picks Bundesliga Saturday 29 August 2026, 17:30

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Predictions & Odds

B Borussia Dortmund 64.5% @1.33

VS Draw 20.9%

H Hamburger SV 14.5% @8.00

Our model call Clear favourites: Borussia Dortmund A 64% call, draw at 21%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Borussia Dortmund 64% 1.33 Draw 21% 5.00 Hamburger SV 14% 8.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 35% 2.55 Over 2.5 65% 1.53 Over 1.5 @1.17

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 52% 1.95 Yes 48% 1.80

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Borussia Dortmund Win	64.5%	77.5%	13 pts under
Both Teams to Score	47.5%	55.6%	8 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	65.4%	67.1%	2 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

01The read

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?

Borussia Dortmund 65%, the draw 21%, Hamburger SV 15%. That's the shape of this one.

Borussia Dortmund to win (65%) | Three or more goals likely (65%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Borussia Dortmund have won three of their last five; Hamburger SV have taken 8 points from their last six. Form gives little away going into this Bundesliga tie.

Our verdict

Borussia Dortmund shade it at 65%, though Hamburger SV won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Borussia Dortmund with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.

Our pick

Our PickBorussia Dortmund to win at @1.33. Model probability 65% vs implied 75%. The market is 11pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model65%

Market75%

Key facts

🎯

Better Chances Borussia Dortmund come out at +1.0 a game on chance quality vs Hamburger SV's -1.0. A clear gap underneath the results

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 65% of Hamburger SV's matches this season

▸ Form & goals

The gap in chance quality is clear: Borussia Dortmund come out at +1.0 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -1.0. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Borussia Dortmund create chances worth 2.2 a game (and give up chances worth 1.2), leaving them +1.0 a game on the balance. Hamburger SV create 1.3 (giving up 2.3) for a balance of -1.0. The underlying numbers clearly favour Borussia Dortmund. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. A worry for Borussia Dortmund: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.9 a game, well below their 2.2 season figure. The attacking output has dipped.

Goals look likely here. Borussia Dortmund average 2.0 per game (2.0 at home) and Hamburger SV chip in with 1.8 (1.8 away). Defensively, Borussia Dortmund concede 1.0 at home and Hamburger SV leak 1.7 on the road. We make it 65% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.0 goals when they meet, with 6 of the last 10 producing three or more. Two or more goals at @1.17 is a steadier alternative for accas. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Borussia Dortmund create chances worth 2.2 a game and Hamburger SV 1.3. Combined, that's 3.4 a game from open play alone.

Both teams score in 41% of Borussia Dortmund's home games and 59% of Hamburger SV's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Borussia Dortmund are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 1.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Hamburger SV, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Hamburger SV have goals in them (1.8 per game) but their record at the back (1.7 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. The chance data suggests Borussia Dortmund will create openings. The chances they create are worth 2.2 a game and Hamburger SV give up chances worth 2.3 on the road. Expect Borussia Dortmund to see plenty of the ball.

In the last 10 meetings: Borussia Dortmund have won 6, Hamburger SV 2, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 3.0 goals per game. 6 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV, Hamburger SV 1-1 Borussia Dortmund, Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV, Hamburger SV 0-3 Borussia Dortmund.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (6%).

First Half Result

Borussia Dortmund HT 1.70
Draw HT 2.62
Hamburger SV HT 7.50

Team Intel

📊 Borussia Dortmund · xG

For: 2.17/g Against: 1.18/g

📊 Hamburger SV · xG

For: 1.26/g Against: 2.28/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Borussia Dortmund Win	@1.33	64.5%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@5.00	20.9%	William Hill
Match Result	Hamburger SV Win	@8.00	14.5%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.80	47.5%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@1.95	52.5%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.53	65.4%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.55	34.6%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.17	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@5.40	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.38	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.66	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Borussia Dortmund

2W streak

Last 5 WWLWL

At home WW

Clean sheets 44% BTTS 50% FTS 6%

Hamburger SV

1W streak 2 unbeaten

Last 6 WDLWLD

Clean sheets 18% BTTS 65% FTS 29%

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV Head to Head

6 Home Wins 2 Draws 2 Away Wins

3.0 Avg Goals

4/10 BTTS

6/10 Over 2.5

2026-03-21 Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV

2025-11-08 Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Hamburger SV

2018-02-10 Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV

2017-09-20 Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Hamburger SV

2017-04-04 Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Hamburger SV

2016-11-05 Borussia Dortmund 5-2 Hamburger SV

2016-04-17 Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Hamburger SV

2015-11-20 Borussia Dortmund 1-3 Hamburger SV

2015-03-07 Borussia Dortmund 0-0 Hamburger SV

2014-10-04 Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Hamburger SV

Full Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 9.2%

3-1 5.6%

3-0 4.0%

3-2 4.0%

4-1 2.6%

4-0 1.8%

4-2 1.8%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Borussia Dortmund under 3.5 goals 84% @1.24 Betano
Hamburger SV under 4.5 corners 84% @1.19 Unibet
Under 4.5 goals 83% @1.26 Betano
Borussia Dortmund under 9.5 corners 83% @1.21 Unibet
Hamburger SV over 1.5 corners 81% @1.23 Unibet
Under 2 first half goals 81% @1.24 Marathon Bet
Over 7.5 corners 81% @1.24 Unibet
Borussia Dortmund over 4.5 corners 81% @1.24 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 80% @1.29 Betano
Under 2.5 second half goals 79% @1.35 Betano
Over 1 second half goals 79% @1.26 Marathon Bet
Under 12.5 corners 79% @1.26 Unibet

Build a slip from these markets →

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Our Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 Borussia Dortmund 66% @ 1.50
2 Over 2.5 Goals 70% @ 1.43

@2.16 £10 returns £21.57

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verified hit rate across 810 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV: FAQs

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?

Our model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite with a 64.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?

Best available odds: Borussia Dortmund @ 1.33, Draw @ 5.00, Hamburger SV @ 8.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV kick off?

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 17:30 in the Bundesliga.

Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 47.5% probability.

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Borussia Dortmund to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.