Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?

Our model rates 1899 Hoffenheim as the favourite with a 43.6% win probability. The full 1X2 split: 1. FC Köln 30.2%, draw 26.2%, 1899 Hoffenheim 43.6%.

Where can I watch 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?

Check official Bundesliga broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 63.7% probability and Under 2.5 goals 36.3%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 810 picks Bundesliga Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30

1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim Predictions & Odds

1 1. FC Köln 30.2% @2.90

VS Draw 26.2%

1 1899 Hoffenheim 43.6% @2.25

Our model call Leans 1899 Hoffenheim, but only just A 44% call, draw at 26%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

1. FC Köln 30% 2.90 Draw 26% 3.50 1899 Hoffenheim 44% 2.25

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 36% 2.45 Over 2.5 64% 1.57 Over 1.5 @1.17

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 45% 2.50 Yes 55% 1.50

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

70% verified · logged before kick-off

Want our pick every time 1. FC Köln play?

Get the model's verified verdict on 1. FC Köln (and any team you follow) emailed the moment odds drop. Free, no spam, one-click unsubscribe.

03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Both Teams to Score	55.3%	69.4%	14 pts under
1. FC Köln Win	30.2%	37.2%	7 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	63.7%	65.8%	2 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 88% of 1. FC Köln home games

01The read

Neighbours Collide: 1. FC Köln and 1899 Hoffenheim Separated by Fine Margins

1. FC Köln 30%, the draw 26%, 1899 Hoffenheim 44%. That's the shape of this one.

1899 Hoffenheim slight edge (44%) | Three or more goals likely (64%) | Predicted: 1-2 Confidence ★★★★★

The bookmakers open 1. FC Köln at @2.90 for this Bundesliga tie, with 1899 Hoffenheim out at @2.25.

Our verdict

Marginal call: 1899 Hoffenheim at just 44%. With the draw at 26%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for 1899 Hoffenheim, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.

Our pick

Our PickThree or more goals at @1.57. Model probability 64% vs implied 64%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.

Model64%

Market64%

Key facts

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 79% of 1. FC Köln's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 64% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

1. FC Köln create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. 1899 Hoffenheim create 1.6 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.3. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath.

Goals are a tough one to call here. 1. FC Köln are scoring 0.0 a game (0.0 of those at home) and 1899 Hoffenheim manage 2.5 (2.5 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 64%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 55%. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. 1. FC Köln create chances worth 1.9 a game and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.6. Combined, that's 3.5 a game from open play alone.

Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 88% of 1. FC Köln's home games and 65% of 1899 Hoffenheim's away matches.

▸ Team news & context

1. FC Köln do it the hard way: only 0.0 a game up top, but a mean 0.0 conceded. They're a tough nut to crack: they soak up pressure and hit you on the break. 1899 Hoffenheim have goals in them (2.5 per game) but their record at the back (1.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (7%) and 0-3 (6%).

First Half Result

1. FC Köln HT 3.30
Draw HT 2.45
1899 Hoffenheim HT 2.50

Team Intel

📊 1. FC Köln · xG

For: 1.88/g Against: 1.60/g

📊 1899 Hoffenheim · xG

For: 1.63/g Against: 1.35/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	1. FC Köln Win	@2.90	30.2%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.50	26.2%	William Hill
Match Result	1899 Hoffenheim Win	@2.25	43.6%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.50	55.3%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.50	44.7%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.57	63.7%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.45	36.3%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.17	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@5.25	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.38	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.64	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

1. FC Köln

Clean sheets 9% BTTS 79% FTS 12%

1899 Hoffenheim

1W streak 2 unbeaten

Last 6 WDLWWW

Clean sheets 21% BTTS 65% FTS 18%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-2 6.8%

0-3 5.7%

1-3 2.8%

2-1 2.7%

0-4 1.8%

2-2 1.7%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Under 4.5 goals 84% @1.23 Betano
Over 2 goals 84% @1.25 BetVictor
Over 7.5 corners 84% @1.19 Unibet
1. FC Köln over 0.5 goals 83% @1.24 Betano
Under 2 first half goals 83% @1.23 Marathon Bet
1. FC Köln under 7.5 corners 83% @1.21 Unibet
1899 Hoffenheim under 2.5 goals 82% @1.26 Unibet
1. FC Köln or 1899 Hoffenheim (double chance) 81% @1.32 1xBet
Over 0.5 first half goals 80% @1.33 Betano
Over 1 second half goals 79% @1.27 Marathon Bet
1. FC Köln under 2 goals 79% @1.27 Marathon Bet
1899 Hoffenheim under 6.5 corners 79% @1.27 Unibet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our 1. FC Köln v 1899 Hoffenheim builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 76% @ 1.31
2 Over 2.5 Goals 65% @ 1.53
3 Both Teams to Score 57% @ 1.75

@3.52 £10 returns £35.17

View full breakdown

Follow this match

Get our verified pick by email every time these teams play. Free, one-click unsubscribe.

More Bundesliga SV Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen Sat 14:30 RB Leipzig v Borussia Mönchengladbach Sat 14:30 FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn 07 Sat 14:30 Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt Sat 14:30 All fixtures this week ›

The record

70%

verified hit rate across 810 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

See every pick ›

1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim: FAQs

Who will win 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?

Our model makes 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite with a 43.6% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?

Best available odds: 1. FC Köln @ 2.90, Draw @ 3.50, 1899 Hoffenheim @ 2.25. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?

1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.

Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 55.3% probability.

1. FC Köln vs 1899 Hoffenheim prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is 1899 Hoffenheim to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.