Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Our model rates RB Leipzig as the favourite with a 58.4% win probability. The full 1X2 split: RB Leipzig 58.4%, draw 21.9%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 19.7%.

Where can I watch RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Check official Bundesliga broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 66.7% probability and Under 2.5 goals 33.3%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 810 picks Bundesliga Saturday 29 August 2026, 14:30

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Predictions & Odds

R RB Leipzig 58.4% @1.55

VS Draw 21.9%

B Borussia Mönchengladbach 19.7% @5.00

Our model call Clear favourites: RB Leipzig A 58% call, draw at 22%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

RB Leipzig 58% 1.55 Draw 22% 4.33 Borussia Mönchengladbach 20% 5.00

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 33% 2.75 Over 2.5 67% 1.50 Over 1.5 @1.14

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 46% 2.40 Yes 54% 1.55

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Both Teams to Score	53.8%	66.7%	13 pts under
RB Leipzig Win	58.4%	66.7%	8 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	66.7%	69.9%	3 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

🎯 Both teams scored in 65% of RB Leipzig home games

01The read

Neighbours Collide: RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach Separated by Fine Margins

RB Leipzig 58%, the draw 22%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 20%. That's the shape of this one.

RB Leipzig slight edge (58%) | Three or more goals likely (67%) | Predicted: 2-1 Confidence ★★★★★

RB Leipzig have won three of their last five; Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 8 points from their last five. Form gives little away going into this Bundesliga tie.

Our verdict

We lean towards RB Leipzig at 58%. The edge is there but not overwhelming, so a stake-back-on-a-draw option is worth a thought for an acca.

Our pick

Our PickRB Leipzig to win at @1.55. Model probability 58% vs implied 65%. The market is 6pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.

Model58%

Market65%

Key facts

🔥

Chances Flowing RB Leipzig creating chances worth 2.1 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 62% of RB Leipzig's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

▸ Form & goals

Borussia Mönchengladbach could be in for a similar cool-off. 1.4 goals a game against chance quality worth only 1.1. Hot finishing has been covering for the fact they aren't creating that much. The gap in chance quality is clear: RB Leipzig come out at +0.3 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.6. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

RB Leipzig create chances worth 2.0 a game (and give up chances worth 1.7), leaving them +0.3 a game on the balance. Borussia Mönchengladbach create 1.1 (giving up 1.7) for a balance of -0.6. The underlying numbers clearly favour RB Leipzig. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones. Borussia Mönchengladbach are also scoring more than their chances suggest (1.4 goals vs chance quality of 1.1). Both runs could cool off at once.

Goals are a tough one to call here. RB Leipzig are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Borussia Mönchengladbach manage 1.4 (1.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 67%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 54%. Two or more goals at @1.14 is a steadier alternative for accas.

Both teams score in 65% of RB Leipzig's home games and 47% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

RB Leipzig are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 2.2 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Borussia Mönchengladbach, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Borussia Mönchengladbach prefer to keep things tight (0.8 conceded per game) and nick a goal on the break. Patience will be key for RB Leipzig against this setup. The chance data suggests RB Leipzig will create openings. The chances they create are worth 2.0 a game and Borussia Mönchengladbach give up chances worth 1.7 on the road. Expect RB Leipzig to see plenty of the ball.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

If you like RB Leipzig but want a bit of cover, the Home/Draw double chance at @1.15 , which pays out if RB Leipzig win or draw, covers 80% of the outcomes. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (7%) and 3-1 (3%).

First Half Result

RB Leipzig HT 2.00
Draw HT 2.62
Borussia Mönchengladbach HT 4.60

Team Intel

📊 RB Leipzig · xG

For: 1.99/g Against: 1.70/g

📊 Borussia Mönchengladbach · xG

For: 1.11/g Against: 1.72/g

⚠️ Outscoring xG by 0.39/g, possibly running hot

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	RB Leipzig Win	@1.55	58.4%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@4.33	21.9%	William Hill
Match Result	Borussia Mönchengladbach Win	@5.00	19.7%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.55	53.8%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.40	46.2%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.50	66.7%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.75	33.3%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.14	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@6.00	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.10	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.76	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

RB Leipzig

1L streak

Last 5 LWLWW

At home WW

Clean sheets 32% BTTS 62% FTS 9%

Borussia Mönchengladbach

1W streak

Last 5 WLWDD

On the road LD

Clean sheets 38% BTTS 41% FTS 35%

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 2-1 7.2%

3-1 3.4%

3-2 3.0%

3-0 1.9%

4-1 1.2%

4-2 1.1%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 12 priced markets

Borussia Mönchengladbach under 5.5 corners 85% @1.18 Unibet
Over 0.5 first half goals 82% @1.28 Betano
Over 1 second half goals 81% @1.23 Marathon Bet
Over 7.5 corners 81% @1.23 Unibet
RB Leipzig under 8.5 corners 81% @1.24 Unibet
Under 4.5 goals 80% @1.30 Betano
Under 2 first half goals 80% @1.29 Marathon Bet
RB Leipzig under 3 goals 79% @1.26 Marathon Bet
Under 12.5 corners 79% @1.26 Unibet
Under 2.5 second half goals 77% @1.40 Betano
RB Leipzig over 4.5 corners 75% @1.34 Unibet
Borussia Mönchengladbach under 1.5 goals 74% @1.40 Betano

Build a slip from these markets →

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Our RB Leipzig v Borussia Mönchengladbach builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 83% @ 1.21
2 Over 2.5 Goals 67% @ 1.50

@1.81 £10 returns £18.13

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The record

70%

verified hit rate across 810 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: FAQs

Who will win RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Our model makes RB Leipzig the favourite with a 58.4% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Best available odds: RB Leipzig @ 1.55, Draw @ 4.33, Borussia Mönchengladbach @ 5.00. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:30 in the Bundesliga.

Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 53.8% probability.

RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is RB Leipzig to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.