03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Strasbourg Win |
29.0% |
35.1% |
6 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Strasbourg vs Lens: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?
The model makes Lens 44% favourites here. Strasbourg carry the 29% upset.
Lens slight edge (44%) | One side to keep the other out (71%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
Strasbourg have taken 7 points from their last five; Lens have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.
Our verdict
Marginal call: Lens at just 44%. With the draw at 27%, this is anyone's game. You could make a case for Lens, but there's a lot to be said for playing it safe.
Where's the value?
The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.
Key facts
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 65% of Strasbourg's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet
▸ Form & goals
The gap in chance quality is clear: Lens come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.0. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Strasbourg create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Lens create 2.1 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.8. On the quality of chances, Lens look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Strasbourg are scoring 1.6 a game (1.6 of those at home) and Lens manage 2.4 (2.4 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 50%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Both teams scoring is unlikely here (29%).
Both teams score in 53% of Strasbourg's home games and 59% of Lens's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.
▸ Team news & context
Lens have goals in them (2.4 per game) but their record at the back (1.4 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Don't underestimate the visitors. Lens create chances worth 2.1 a game and Strasbourg give up chances worth 1.6 at home. The away side could control the ball here.
In the last 10 meetings: Strasbourg have won 3, Lens 4, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.3 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Strasbourg 1-1 Lens, Lens 1-0 Strasbourg, Lens 0-2 Strasbourg, Strasbourg 2-2 Lens.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (9%) and 1-1 (8%).
Latest News
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Team Intel
📊 Strasbourg · xG
For: 1.57/g
Against: 1.59/g
📊 Lens · xG
For: 2.12/g
Against: 1.32/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Strasbourg vs Lens Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Strasbourg Win |
@2.94
|
29.0% |
1xBet |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@3.82
|
27.1% |
1xBet |
| Match Result |
Lens Win |
@2.42
|
43.9% |
1xBet |
05The numbers
Strasbourg vs Lens Head to Head
3 Home Wins
3 Draws
4 Away Wins
2.3
Avg Goals
5/10
BTTS
4/10
Over 2.5
2026-02-27
Strasbourg 1-1 Lens
2025-11-22
Strasbourg 0-1 Lens
2025-02-16
Strasbourg 2-0 Lens
2024-10-06
Strasbourg 2-2 Lens
2024-02-10
Strasbourg 1-3 Lens
2023-09-29
Strasbourg 0-1 Lens
2023-04-07
Strasbourg 1-2 Lens
2023-01-11
Strasbourg 2-2 Lens
2022-04-03
Strasbourg 1-0 Lens
2021-09-22
Strasbourg 1-0 Lens
Full Strasbourg vs Lens head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
9.0%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.8%
1-3
6.5%
2-1
6.3%
0-2
5.9%
0-1
5.5%
2-3
4.9%