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The model makes Wolves 57% favourites here. Sheffield Wednesday carry the 18% upset.
Sheffield Wednesday have won three of their last five; Wolves are unbeaten in their last five. The visitors bring the sharper form into this EFL Cup tie.
Our PickWolves to win at @1.62. Model probability 57% vs implied 62%. The market is 5pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues — see /accuracy.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Sheffield Wednesday create chances worth 0.9 a game (and give up chances worth 2.2), leaving them -1.2 a game on the balance. Wolves create 1.1 (giving up 1.6) for a balance of -0.5. On the quality of chances, Wolves look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.
Goals are a tough one to call here. Sheffield Wednesday are scoring 1.0 a game (1.0 of those at home) and Wolves manage 2.3 (2.3 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 53%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 48%.
Wolves are similarly well-balanced. 2.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. This has the makings of a tight, tactical game between two organised sides.
In the last 10 meetings: Sheffield Wednesday have won 2, Wolves 5, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 1.7 goals per game. 3 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Wolves, Wolves 0-0 Sheffield Wednesday, Sheffield Wednesday 0-1 Wolves.
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Probability | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sheffield Wednesday Win | @4.80 | 17.7% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Draw | @3.60 | 25.3% | William Hill |
| Match Result | Wolves Win | @1.62 | 57.0% | William Hill |
| BTTS | Yes | @1.75 | 47.6% | William Hill |
| BTTS | No | @1.95 | 52.4% | William Hill |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | @1.80 | 53.4% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | @2.05 | 46.6% | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 1.5 | @1.22 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 1.5 | @4.10 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | @3.00 | - | Bet365 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | @1.40 | - | Bet365 |
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Our model makes Wolves the favourite with a 57.0% win probability, priced off the bookmakers and our model. Our verified record so far is on our core leagues.
Best available odds: Sheffield Wednesday @ 4.80, Draw @ 3.60, Wolves @ 1.62. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.
Sheffield Wednesday vs Wolves kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:45 in the EFL Cup.