Who is favourite to win Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our model rates Paris Saint Germain as the favourite with a 55.5% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Lille 19.4%, draw 23.1%, Paris Saint Germain 55.5%.

Where can I watch Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Check official Ligue 1 broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 44.7% probability and Under 2.5 goals 55.3%. The lean is towards a tighter, lower-scoring affair.

70% verified · 829 picks Ligue 1 Friday 28 August 2026, 19:45

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Predictions & Odds

L Lille 19.4% @4.33

VS Draw 23.1%

P Paris Saint Germain 55.5% @1.73

Our model call Clear favourites: Paris Saint Germain A 56% call, draw at 23%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Lille 19% 4.33 Draw 23% 3.80 Paris Saint Germain 56% 1.73

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 55% 2.18 Over 2.5 45% 1.73 Over 1.5 @1.22

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 49% 2.20 Yes 51% 1.65

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Over 2.5 Goals	44.7%	59.5%	15 pts under
Both Teams to Score	51.0%	60.6%	10 pts under
Paris Saint Germain Win	55.5%	61.0%	5 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Match Stats

Match Stats, informational, not part of our tracked record. Corner, card and foul projections come from each team's real season averages. Build your own bet.

Over 8.5 Match Corners 42% (model) Corners: Lille avg 3.0 for/4.7 against, Paris Saint Germain avg 5.6 for/3.0 against → expected 8.1 match corners
Over 3.5 Match Cards 39% (model) Cards: Lille avg 1.7/game, Paris Saint Germain avg 1.5/game → expected 3.2 match cards
Over 20.5 Match Fouls 44% (model) Fouls: Lille avg 11.3/game, Paris Saint Germain avg 8.7/game → expected 20.0 match fouls
Over 26.5 Match Shots 60% (model) Shots: Lille avg 13.0/game, Paris Saint Germain avg 15.0/game → expected 28.0 match shots

Projected from real team season averages only, informational, and outside our verified record by design, never a tracked pick and never part of the record we publish. 18+ · BeGambleAware.

Key Stats

01The read

Lille and Paris Saint Germain Promise Fireworks. Preview & Prediction

The model makes Paris Saint Germain 56% favourites here. Lille carry the 19% upset.

Paris Saint Germain slight edge (56%) | Predicted: 0-1 Confidence ★★★★★

Lille (3rd, 3 pts) host Paris Saint Germain (10th, 1 pts) in the Ligue 1. Both sides will be targeting three points here.

Our verdict

Paris Saint Germain shade it at 56%, though Lille won't be pushovers. If you're building an acca, backing Paris Saint Germain with your stake back if it's a draw is the safer option.

Our pick

Our PickParis Saint Germain to win at @1.73. Model probability 56% vs implied 58%. Priced at fair value, so take it for stability rather than edge.

Model56%

Market58%

Key facts

📊

H2H Favours Away Paris Saint Germain have won 8 of the last 10 encounters. They have a psychological edge

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 62% of Paris Saint Germain's matches this season

▸ Form & goals

Interestingly, Lille have been poor at home recently while Paris Saint Germain travel well. the visitors' away form is superior to the hosts' home record. Season-long, Lille average 3.0 points per game compared to Paris Saint Germain's 1.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Lille average 2.0 per game and Paris Saint Germain chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest. A concern for Paris Saint Germain: they're giving up chances worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 (vs 1.0 for the season). The defence is creaking.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Lille create chances worth 1.5 a game (and give up chances worth 0.6), leaving them +0.9 a game on the balance. Paris Saint Germain create 2.2 (giving up 1.0) for a balance of +1.1. The chance quality on both sides is remarkably similar. There's nothing to split these two underneath. A worry for Lille: the chances they're creating lately are worth 1.2 a game, well below their 1.5 season figure. The attacking output has dipped. Paris Saint Germain's defence is giving up chances. Worth 1.4 a game over their last 5 vs 1.0 for the season. They're becoming easier to break down.

Goals are a tough one to call here. Lille are scoring 2.0 a game (2.0 of those at home) and Paris Saint Germain manage 2.0 (0.0 on the road). Add it up and it's basically a coin-flip whether we see three or more, we make it 45%, so there's no strong lean either way on the goals line. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 51%. Two or more goals at @1.22 is a steadier alternative for accas. Interestingly, the chances suggest more goals than the headline number. Lille and Paris Saint Germain together create chances worth 3.7 a game. The low figure might be underrating the attacking quality here.

Both teams score in 47% of Lille's home games and 71% of Paris Saint Germain's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Matches involving Lille always carry an extra edge. When you're challenging at the top, every fixture is scrutinised, every dropped point analysed. Paris Saint Germain will know they need to be at their best to get a result here.

Lille are in great shape right now, banging in 2.0 a game and only letting in 0.5. They're strong at both ends, so they tend to boss games and don't give much away at the back. Paris Saint Germain have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (1.3 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.

In the last 10 meetings: Lille have won 0, Paris Saint Germain 8, with 2 draws. These fixtures average 4.4 goals per game. 8 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Both teams have scored in most of their recent meetings, so there's a good chance both find the net again. Recent results: Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Lille, Lille 1-1 Paris Saint Germain, Paris Saint Germain 4-1 Lille, Lille 1-3 Paris Saint Germain.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 0-1 (7%) and 0-2 (4%).

First Half Result

Lille HT 4.50
Draw HT 2.30
Paris Saint Germain HT 2.20

Team Intel

📊 Lille · xG

For: 1.52/g Against: 0.60/g

📊 Paris Saint Germain · xG

For: 2.15/g Against: 1.01/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Lille Win	@4.33	19.4%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.80	23.1%	William Hill
Match Result	Paris Saint Germain Win	@1.73	55.5%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.65	51.0%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.20	49.0%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.73	44.7%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.18	55.3%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.22	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.75	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.45	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Lille

1W streak

Last 5 WLWDW

At home LDD

Clean sheets 38% BTTS 38% FTS 29%

Paris Saint Germain

2 unbeaten

Last 5 DDLWW

On the road DLWDW

Clean sheets 24% BTTS 62% FTS 26%

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Team Stats

Lille OSC

Position 3

Played 1

Record 1W-0D-0L

Goals F/A 2/0

Avg Goals Scored 2.00

Points 3

Overall Form WLWDW

Home Form LDD

Home Record 0W-0D-0L

Paris FC

Position 10

Played 1

Record 0W-1D-0L

Avg Goals Scored 2.00

Points 1

Overall Form DDLWW

Away Form DLWDW

Away Record 0W-1D-0L

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain Head to Head

0 Home Wins 2 Draws 8 Away Wins

4.4 Avg Goals

9/10 BTTS

8/10 Over 2.5

2026-01-16 Lille 0-3 Paris Saint Germain

2025-10-05 Lille 1-1 Paris Saint Germain

2025-03-01 Lille 1-4 Paris Saint Germain

2024-09-01 Lille 1-3 Paris Saint Germain

2024-02-10 Lille 1-3 Paris Saint Germain

2023-12-17 Lille 1-1 Paris Saint Germain

2023-02-19 Lille 3-4 Paris Saint Germain

2022-08-21 Lille 1-7 Paris Saint Germain

2022-02-06 Lille 1-5 Paris Saint Germain

2021-10-29 Lille 1-2 Paris Saint Germain

Full Lille vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 0-1 7.0%

0-2 4.4%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Same-game fold one leg per market, live prices

Over 1.5 goals Smart 83% @1.25 Betano
Under 5.5 cards 84% @1.19 Betano
Lille over 2.5 corners Smart 83% @1.27 Unibet
Ousmane Dembele 1+ shots on target 80% @1.25 Bet365
Mika Godts 1+ shots on target 77% @1.30 Bet365

Combined 3.07 · £5 returns £15.35

Market singles 12 priced markets

Marius Broholm 1+ shots 85% @1.18 Bet365
Noah Edjouma 1+ shots 85% @1.18 Bet365
Under 5.5 cards 84% @1.19 Betano
Over 1.5 goals 83% @1.25 Betano
Lille or Paris Saint Germain (double chance) 83% @1.28 1xBet
Lille over 2.5 corners 83% @1.27 Unibet
Under 2.5 second half goals 83% @1.27 Betano
Paris Saint Germain over 1 goals 81% @1.23 Marathon Bet
Over 7.5 corners 81% @1.36 Superbet
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 corners 81% @1.35 Unibet
Ousmane Dembele 1+ shots on target 80% @1.25 Bet365
Under 11.5 corners 79% @1.34 Superbet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Lille v Paris Saint Germain builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 Paris Saint Germain or Draw 81% @ 1.23
2 Over 1.5 Goals 76% @ 1.31

@1.61 £10 returns £16.10

View full breakdown

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The record

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verified hit rate across 829 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Lille vs Paris Saint Germain: FAQs

Who will win Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite with a 55.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Best available odds: Lille @ 4.33, Draw @ 3.80, Paris Saint Germain @ 1.73. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Lille vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 19:45 in the Ligue 1.

Will both teams score in Lille vs Paris Saint Germain?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 51.0% probability.

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Paris Saint Germain to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.