Who is favourite to win Strasbourg vs Lens?

Our model rates Lens as the favourite with a 44.5% win probability. The full 1X2 split: Strasbourg 26.9%, draw 28.6%, Lens 44.5%.

Where can I watch Strasbourg vs Lens?

Check official Ligue 1 broadcaster listings (Sky Sports, TNT Sports, Premier Sports, BBC, ITV) for live TV coverage. UK streaming details are confirmed by rights holders closer to kickoff.

How many goals are expected in Strasbourg vs Lens?

Our model gives Over 2.5 goals a 59.9% probability and Under 2.5 goals 40.1%. The lean is towards a high-scoring game.

70% verified · 822 picks Ligue 1 Saturday 29 August 2026, 16:15

Strasbourg vs Lens Predictions & Odds

S Strasbourg 26.9% @3.10

VS Draw 28.6%

L Lens 44.5% @2.15

Our model call Leans Lens, but only just A 44% call, draw at 29%.

★★★

Match result modelmarket

Strasbourg 27% 3.10 Draw 29% 3.40 Lens 44% 2.15

Goals modelmarket

Under 2.5 40% 2.25 Over 2.5 60% 1.67 Over 1.5 @1.20

Both teams to score modelmarket

No 47% 2.38 Yes 53% 1.57

30+ rated markets on this game, every leg tracked in public Build this bet →

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03Model vs the market

Our Model vs The Market

Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.

Market	Our model	Bookies imply	Difference
Both Teams to Score	53.2%	65.8%	13 pts under
Strasbourg Win	26.9%	34.7%	8 pts under
Over 2.5 Goals	59.9%	60.6%	1 pts under

What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.

Key Stats

01The read

Strasbourg vs Lens: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?

The model makes Lens 45% favourites here. Strasbourg carry the 27% upset.

Lens slight edge (45%) | Predicted: 1-2 Confidence ★★★★★

Strasbourg have taken 7 points from their last five; Lens have won three of their last five. Form gives little away going into this Ligue 1 tie.

Our verdict

Too close to call with any conviction. Lens edge it at 45% but a draw (29%) is just as likely. One to tread carefully with.

Where's the value?

The bookmakers have priced this match fairly. Our model doesn't see a big edge in the match result market.

Key facts

⚽

Open Games Both teams score in 65% of Strasbourg's matches. Their games rarely stay quiet

🎯

Goals Lean We make it 60% for three or more goals in this one

▸ Form & goals

The gap in chance quality is clear: Lens come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to -0.0. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.

xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.

Strasbourg create chances worth 1.6 a game (and give up chances worth 1.6), leaving them 0.0 a game on the balance. Lens create 2.1 (giving up 1.3) for a balance of +0.8. On the quality of chances, Lens look the stronger side. they create more and give up less.

Goals look likely here. Strasbourg average 1.6 per game (1.6 at home) and Lens chip in with 2.4 (2.4 away). Defensively, Strasbourg concede 1.9 at home and Lens leak 1.4 on the road. We make it 60% for three or more goals. The numbers back it without being overwhelming. Whether both teams score is a genuine coin-flip, and we make it 53%. Two or more goals at @1.20 is a steadier alternative for accas. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Strasbourg create chances worth 1.6 a game and Lens 2.1. Combined, that's 3.7 a game from open play alone.

Both teams score in 53% of Strasbourg's home games and 59% of Lens's away matches. both teams finding the net isn't guaranteed.

▸ Team news & context

Lens have goals in them (2.4 per game) but their record at the back (1.4 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end. Don't underestimate the visitors. Lens create chances worth 2.1 a game and Strasbourg give up chances worth 1.6 at home. The away side could control the ball here.

In the last 10 meetings: Strasbourg have won 3, Lens 4, with 3 draws. These fixtures average 2.3 goals per game. 4 of the last 10 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Strasbourg 1-1 Lens, Lens 1-0 Strasbourg, Lens 0-2 Strasbourg, Strasbourg 2-2 Lens.

▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half

Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (9%) and 2-2 (7%).

First Half Result

Strasbourg HT 3.40
Draw HT 2.38
Lens HT 2.50

Team Intel

📊 Strasbourg · xG

For: 1.57/g Against: 1.59/g

📊 Lens · xG

For: 2.12/g Against: 1.32/g

Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market

The complete price grid across all bookmakers.

Strasbourg vs Lens Odds Comparison

Market	Selection	Odds	Probability	Bookmaker
Match Result	Strasbourg Win	@3.10	26.9%	William Hill
Match Result	Draw	@3.40	28.6%	William Hill
Match Result	Lens Win	@2.15	44.5%	William Hill
BTTS	Yes	@1.57	53.2%	William Hill
BTTS	No	@2.38	46.8%	William Hill
Goals	Over 2.5	@1.67	59.9%	Bet365
Goals	Under 2.5	@2.25	40.1%	Bet365
Goals	Over 1.5	@1.20	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 1.5	@4.50	-	Bet365
Goals	Over 3.5	@2.62	-	Bet365
Goals	Under 3.5	@1.52	-	Bet365

05The numbers

Recent Form

Strasbourg

1L streak

Last 5 LWWDL

At home WLLLW

Clean sheets 26% BTTS 65% FTS 18%

Lens

2W streak

Last 5 WWLWD

On the road WDD

Clean sheets 35% BTTS 50% FTS 18%

Strasbourg vs Lens Head to Head

3 Home Wins 3 Draws 4 Away Wins

2.3 Avg Goals

5/10 BTTS

4/10 Over 2.5

2026-02-27 Strasbourg 1-1 Lens

2025-11-22 Strasbourg 0-1 Lens

2025-02-16 Strasbourg 2-0 Lens

2024-10-06 Strasbourg 2-2 Lens

2024-02-10 Strasbourg 1-3 Lens

2023-09-29 Strasbourg 0-1 Lens

2023-04-07 Strasbourg 1-2 Lens

2023-01-11 Strasbourg 2-2 Lens

2022-04-03 Strasbourg 1-0 Lens

2021-09-22 Strasbourg 1-0 Lens

Full Strasbourg vs Lens head-to-head history →

Most Likely Scorelines

MOST LIKELY 1-2 9.0%

2-2 6.8%

1-3 6.5%

2-1 6.3%

2-3 4.9%

0-3 4.3%

1-4 3.5%

3-2 3.4%

Full Market Breakdown

Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.

Market singles 10 priced markets

Over 1.5 goals 84% @1.22 10Bet
Lens under 2.5 goals 83% @1.25 Betano
Under 2.5 second half goals 82% @1.30 Betano
Strasbourg or Lens (double chance) 82% @1.38 1xBet
Under 4 goals 81% @1.23 1xBet
Strasbourg over 0.5 goals 80% @1.31 1xBet
Over 0.5 first half goals 78% @1.36 Betano
Over 1 second half goals 77% @1.30 1xBet
Lens or Draw (double chance) 76% @1.40 10Bet
Lens over 1 goals 75% @1.34 1xBet

Build a slip from these markets →

Build your own bet

Our Strasbourg v Lens builder

Our model's suggested selections (each one's a "leg"). Tap to build it, then place with your own bookmaker.

1 No Draw 77% @ 1.30
2 Over 1.5 Goals 77% @ 1.30

@1.68 £10 returns £16.84

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The record

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verified hit rate across 822 graded picks, every one logged before kick-off.

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Strasbourg vs Lens: FAQs

Who will win Strasbourg vs Lens?

Our model makes Lens the favourite with a 44.5% win probability, based on form, head-to-head record and expected goals.

What are the best odds for Strasbourg vs Lens?

Best available odds: Strasbourg @ 3.10, Draw @ 3.40, Lens @ 2.15. We compare multiple bookmakers to find the best value.

What time does Strasbourg vs Lens kick off?

Strasbourg vs Lens kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 16:15 in the Ligue 1.

Will both teams score in Strasbourg vs Lens?

Our model gives Both Teams to Score (Yes) a 53.2% probability.

Strasbourg vs Lens prediction and betting tips?

Our top prediction is Lens to win. We also rate over/under goals, BTTS, correct score and double chance, every pick is tracked and verified against real outcomes.