03Model vs the market
Our Model vs The Market
Where our probabilities disagree with bookmaker prices.
| Market |
Our model |
Bookies imply |
Difference |
| Liverpool Win |
58.1% |
68.0% |
10 pts under
|
| Over 2.5 Goals |
69.2% |
70.4% |
1 pts under
|
| Both Teams to Score |
65.2% |
65.4% |
0 pts under
|
What this means: where our model sits above the bookies is where we see value they don't; below means the market already has it priced, no edge there.
01The read
Ipswich vs Liverpool: Who Takes the Bragging Rights?
The model makes Liverpool 58% favourites here. Ipswich carry the 17% upset.
Liverpool slight edge (58%) | Three or more goals likely (69%) | Both teams to score (65%) | Predicted: 1-2
Confidence
★★★★★
There's barely anything between these two. Ipswich (12th, 3 pts) and Liverpool (13th, 2 pts) meet in a fixture that could shape the Premier League table.
Our verdict
The data leans towards Liverpool (58%), but there's enough doubt to stay careful. Ipswich have the tools to make this uncomfortable.
Our pick
Our PickLiverpool to win at @1.55. Model probability 58% vs implied 65%. The market is 6pp more bullish than our model, so this is a stability pick, not a value one.
Key facts
🔥
Goals Expected
Ipswich score 2.0 per game at home and Liverpool concede 2.0 away. Goals look inevitable
🔥
Chances Flowing
Ipswich creating chances worth 2.0 a game over their last 5. High-quality openings at will
⚽
Open Games
Both teams score in 68% of Liverpool's matches this season
▸ Form & goals
Ipswich's home record this season is formidable. W1 D0 L0 from 1, scoring 2.0 goals per game at home. Liverpool, by contrast, have struggled on the road (W0 D1 L0 from 1 away). That imbalance is hard to ignore. Crucially, Ipswich are in strong home form while Liverpool are struggling away from home. the venue factor amplifies the form gap. Season-long, Ipswich average 1.5 points per game compared to Liverpool's 1.0. that gap in consistency is hard to ignore. Both sides are prolific in front of goal. Ipswich average 2.0 per game and Liverpool chip in with 2.0. Expect an open, attacking contest. The gap in chance quality is clear: Ipswich come out at +0.8 a game (chances they create minus chances they give up) compared to +0.1. that's a real edge in the quality of chances.
xG explained: Expected Goals measures chance quality. 1.5 xG = a side typically converts those chances into 1.5 goals. Outscoring xG = running hot, possible regression risk.
Ipswich create chances worth 1.9 a game (and give up chances worth 1.1), leaving them +0.8 a game on the balance. Liverpool create 1.5 (giving up 1.4) for a balance of +0.1. The underlying numbers clearly favour Ipswich. They're creating better chances AND giving up fewer good ones.
Goals look likely here. Ipswich average 2.0 per game (2.0 at home) and Liverpool chip in with 2.0 (2.0 away). Defensively, Ipswich concede 1.0 at home and Liverpool leak 2.0 on the road. We make it 69% for three or more goals. One of the stronger cases for goals today. There's a good chance both teams find the net, and we make it 65%. Ipswich score in 87% of their games and Liverpool in 89%, and neither back line is tight enough to bank on a clean sheet. Their past meetings back this up. These two average 3.5 goals when they meet, with 1 of the last 2 producing three or more. Two or more goals at @1.14 is a steadier alternative for accas. The chance-quality data backs the goals case. Ipswich create chances worth 1.9 a game and Liverpool 1.5. Combined, that's 3.4 a game from open play alone.
Both teams scoring is the pattern. It happens in 52% of Ipswich's home games and 68% of Liverpool's away matches.
▸ Team news & context
Neither side has much to play for in the grand scheme. no European places within reach and relegation isn't a concern. That can make for an unpredictable game with less pressure on both sides.
Ipswich are all-out attack: 2.0 goals a game, but they leak 3.0 at the other end. They'll throw plenty at Liverpool, but there are gaps at the back for the visitors to get at. Liverpool have goals in them (2.0 per game) but their record at the back (2.0 conceded) leaves them open. This could be end-to-end.
In the last 2 meetings: Ipswich have won 0, Liverpool 2, with 0 draws. These fixtures average 3.5 goals per game. 1 of the last 2 produced 3+ goals. Recent results: Liverpool 4-1 Ipswich, Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool.
▸ Other markets: scorelines, scorers, cards & first half
Most likely scorelines: 1-2 (7%) and 1-3 (6%).
First Half Result
-
Ipswich HT
4.60
-
Draw HT
2.50
-
Liverpool HT
2.05
Latest News
Loading latest news...
Team Intel
📊 Ipswich · xG
For: 2.03/g
Against: 0.89/g
📊 Liverpool · xG
For: 1.48/g
Against: 1.42/g
Full odds comparison: every bookmaker, every market
The complete price grid across all bookmakers.
Ipswich vs Liverpool Odds Comparison
| Market |
Selection |
Odds |
Probability |
Bookmaker |
| Match Result |
Ipswich Win |
@5.00
|
16.6% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Draw |
@4.50
|
23.3% |
William Hill |
| Match Result |
Liverpool Win |
@1.55
|
58.1% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
Yes |
@1.60
|
65.2% |
William Hill |
| BTTS |
No |
@2.30
|
34.8% |
William Hill |
| Goals |
Over 2.5 |
@1.50
|
69.2% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 2.5 |
@2.79
|
30.8% |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 1.5 |
@1.14
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 1.5 |
@6.00
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Over 3.5 |
@2.20
|
- |
Bet365 |
| Goals |
Under 3.5 |
@1.74
|
- |
Bet365 |
05The numbers
Ipswich vs Liverpool Team Stats
Ipswich Town FC
Position
12
Played
2
Record
1W-0D-1L
Goals F/A
4/6
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Points
3
Overall Form
LWWWD
Home Form
WWW
Home Record
1W-0D-0L
Liverpool FC
Position
13
Played
2
Record
0W-2D-0L
Goals F/A
4/4
Avg Goals Scored
2.00
Points
2
Overall Form
DDDLD
Away Form
DLL
Away Record
0W-1D-0L
Ipswich vs Liverpool Head to Head
Limited recent meetings (2), too small a sample for a reliable head-to-head split.
0 Home Wins
0 Draws
2 Away Wins
3.5
Avg Goals
1/2
BTTS
1/2
Over 2.5
2025-01-25
Ipswich 1-4 Liverpool
2024-08-17
Ipswich 0-2 Liverpool
Full Ipswich vs Liverpool head-to-head history →
Most Likely Scorelines
MOST LIKELY
1-2
6.9%
1-3
5.8%
2-3
5.8%
1-4
3.6%
2-4
3.6%
0-3
2.9%
3-4
2.4%
0-4
1.8%
Full Market Breakdown
Bookmaker prices with the margin still inside — the market's own
numbers, not our model. A market priced at 65% still fails about one time in three.
Market singles 12 priced markets
-
Over 7.5 shots on target
84%
@1.19
Unibet
-
Under 12.5 shots on target
83%
@1.20
Unibet
-
Ipswich under 5 corners
83%
@1.21
1xBet
-
Over 0.5 first half goals
82%
@1.25
Bet365
-
Over 1 second half goals
82%
@1.22
Marathon Bet
-
Over 7.5 corners
81%
@1.33
Superbet
-
Under 4.5 goals
81%
@1.28
Bet365
-
Under 2 first half goals
81%
@1.33
Betano
-
Liverpool under 3 goals
81%
@1.24
Marathon Bet
-
Liverpool under 7.5 corners
80%
@1.31
Superbet
-
Under 11.5 corners
79%
@1.38
Unibet
-
Under 2.5 second half goals
77%
@1.35
Superbet
Build a slip from these markets →